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Under the façade of secularism and with abundant resources at his command, Ajmal’s party jumped into the poll fray in the 2006 assembly elections and its debut performance with 12 seats in the 126 member House took political observers by surprise. In the Lok Sabha polls of 2009, the party could win 1 of the 14 seats. There was no looking back since then as the assembly poll results of 2011 took the tally of AIUDF from 12 to 18.
More jolts and jerks awaited for its three main political opponents in the panchayat elections of February 2013. In its first ever contest for rural polls in 2007, AIUDF won 40 Zilla Parishad seats to increase the number to 70. Brimming with confidence, Badaruddin Ajmal has now set the target for the Lok Sabha polls of 2014 and is confident of bagging 5 seats. And by 2016 when the next assembly polls are held, the results, as he claimed before the media, will crown him with the Chief Ministership of Assam which created a political storm.
Is the AIUDF supremo making the claim to gauge the mood of the people of a State that is caught in the vice grip of influx of aliens? Even though the AGP and BJP leaders might dismiss the claim as Ajmal’s ‘day dreaming’ and ‘wishful thinking’, the ground realities can hardly be ignored. AIUDF’s growing clout in State politics as the second biggest opposition in the assembly from all fairness has rattled and sent ripples in the body polity of the State.
Several factors are attributed to the expanding base and support of the party. The ‘vote-bank’ politics that the Congress has been playing with since the first general elections of 1952 has its own dark shadows. This policy has encouraged unabated influx from East Pakistan, now Bangladesh, despite warnings by British experts on demography starting from Lloyd in 1911, C S Mullan in 1921 and J P Mills in 1931 down to Bhagaiwala ICS, Census Superintendent, in 1951. All of them cautioned about the alarming situation developing in the State of Assam due to infiltration. But, political survival or sticking to power has always been the ‘obsession with Congress’.
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A look at the strength of the political parties in the state assembly and their share of votes with the emergence of AIUDF gives an indication of the shape of things to come. Assam poll 2011 results: Congress 78 In respect of vote share, Congress got 39%, followed by AIUDF 12%, BPF 6%, BJP 11% and AGP 16%. |
As a natural corollary to it, the influx of aliens has not only gone to swell the votes of Congress but also turned the population of the indigenous people in 6 of the 27 districts of the State which include Karimganj, Hailakandi, Dhubri, Goalpara, Nagaon and Barpeta while 4 others are on the way. During its long 47 years of rule over the State, the Congress has never been serious on the burgeoning issue. In order to further add teeth to its ‘vote-bank’, the infamous Illegal Migrants (Determination Tribunal) Act came into effect in 1983 that went to protect the Bangladeshis and it needed no repetition. Though it was annulled by the Supreme Court on a PIL filed by Sarvanand Sonowal, the present BJP State President, the die was already cast.
In the aftermath of the Bodoland violence of July 2012, there is rethinking among the Muslims about their traditional support to Congress as they have suffered a lot in the clashes. Political analysts point out that AIUDF which has made significant inroads in the Muslim dominated areas is likely to increase its acceptance level in other belts with their significant presence. Badaruddin Ajmal’s party has taken full advantage of the insecurity of the Muslims. There is no denial of the fact that with a strong anti - Congress sentiment now prevailing, it is likely that the INC might further lose its support base. The AIUDF has blamed the Assam Chief Minister, Tarun Gogoi, for his failure to control violence despite his being the Home Minister also.
Quite significantly, out of the total number of representatives, 18 MLAs and 1 MP elected are from the Muslim majority districts and constituencies. The phenomenal rise and growth of AIUDF has upset the apple cart of Congress in a number of constituencies. Like once bitten twice shy, Badaruddin Ajmal has been playing his twin card of ‘secularism and communalism’ quite dexterously, depending upon the situation to ensure that Muslim votes do not split.
This he displayed rather quite brazenly during the last February 24 assembly by - poll of Algapur constituency in Hailakandi district, an AGP fortress since 1985 held by Sahidul Alam Choudhury, minister and close confidant of Prafulla Kumar Mahanta. He called upon the Muslims to support the AIUDF candidate, Mehbubul Hussain Laskar, nephew of late Sahidul Alam and they did rally around. It was an ‘unprecedented polarization and communalization’ of an electoral battle that saw the Congress candidate, Mandira Roy, wife of influential Minister of Assam, Gautom Roy, just scrape through with a slender margin of 915 votes. This is an ominous signal for the future, commented political observers.
A worried Congress with its eroding traditional ‘vote-bank’ has now taken to another one of its well known strategies of ‘appeasement of the minorities’ to woo back the Muslims from AIUDF. Digvijay Singh, in charge of Assam, who held a conclave with the Chief Minister, Tarun Gogoi, ministers and MLAs at Dispur in the early part of April, citing the instances of several states, justified reservation of jobs for Muslims on a population pattern. This led to serious resentment among the indigenous people - tribals and non - tribals. But, the sharpest criticism came from the senior most leader and MLA of the party, Abdul Muhib Mazumdar, who described it as an act of hypocrisy. Jobs on a population pattern, he reminded the Chief Minister, was agreed in principle during the time of Hiteswar Saikia, former CM in the 80’s, but was never followed. Without mincing words, it could well be said that the Congress ‘vote-bank’ politics has boomeranged to now boost AIUDF. There is also no denial of the fact that the Muslim immigrants have become the fulcrum of power politics in Assam.
