Ironically, the ‘much vilified’ phrase for Modi was used more than once by none other than party patriarchL K Advani himself, a longtime Modi benefactor. And it was a twist of political conditions and of course fate that in the Goa conclave of the BJP national executives; the veteran Advani was almost handed the marching order. “For someone who had joined the RSS shakha at the age of 15, the Goa conclave without his presence on the pretext of ‘loose motion’ and the subsequent drama of the virtual coronation of Modi only showed that for Advani, his image has transformed from the party’s poster boy to forced retirement,” says political observer Vidyarthi Kumar.

Brushing aside Advani’s strong opposition – supposedly backed by his loyalists like Sushma Swaraj and JD (U) leader Nitish Kumar, the BJP president Rajnath Singh made an unprecedented and historical announcement in Goa anointing Narendra Modi as the chief of its election campaign committee. The impact was much deeper than merely sidelining Advani. The BJP-led NDA split within 7 days with the exit of Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) breaking the 17-year-old ties.

The inevitable exit of JD (U) from the NDA as a fallout of the elevation of Modi as the principal ‘face’ for the 2014 polls on June 16, 2013 perhaps also came as a blessing in disguise for the embattled Gujarat Chief Minister.

Can Modi deliver? More so the question has its own significance as the party is practically clueless about winning seats from states like Bengal and the northeastern region.

Many in his camp and also the so-called ‘anti-Modi’ camp in the saffron party maintained that JD (U)’s exit only removed the last of strong hurdles in the way of the ‘achiever’ Gujarat Chief Minister inching a step ahead towards the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate.

“It is a paradox in politics. You end up helping your worst enemy when you think you are harming him or her,” remarked a BJP leader known to be in L K Advani’s camp. He quickly cited the example when the troika Sharad Pawar, P A Sangma and Tariq Anwar walked away from Congress in 1999 raising the bogey of Sonia Gandhi’s foreign origin. “I know the Late Rajesh Pilot later flayed Pawar saying that the exit of three leaders weakened the rebels and strengthened Sonia’s grip on Congress”.

Eastern Panorama has information that it was this concern that made the pro-Advani camp make a last minute appeal to Nitish Kumar to avoid the split. The apprehension was obvious that the move would strengthen the Hindutva hardliner as well as the Modi camp. “Now, we will be on our own,” was the terse response from BJP leader in Bihar, Giriraj Singh.

Supposedly backed by his loyalists like Sushma Swaraj and JD (U) leader Nitish Kumar, the BJP president Rajnath Singh made an unprecedented and historical announcement in Goa anointing Narendra Modi as the chief of its election campaign committee.

The BJP central leadership remained indifferent to the end of 17-year-old ties and also the perceived ‘weakening’ of the opposition alliance. Even minutes after Nitish Kumar announced the exit from the NDA, BJP Vice President Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, a Muslim face of BJP, made it clear that there is no going back on Modi’s anointment.

Another Muslim leader from Gujarat BJP, Asifa Khan said, “Even in the past Modi has benefited from such unreasonable attack and criticism”. There has been jubilation in the Modi camp.

The exit of Nitish Kumar’s secular baggage would give the Gujarat Chief Minister and the BJP a bigger platform to talk of the appeasement of the minority. Modi’s now famous words, “We don’t do anything either for majority or minority, we do whatever is essential for 6 crore Gujaratis” will now be used nationwide. “The common Hindus, especially the upper caste by tradition and the middle class by economic stratification will find Modi and BJP as a group genuinely concerned about them,” says another pro-Modi leader.

UP-Centric Moditva Facing immense challenge to storm back to power in the Centre in the backdrop of two consecutive defeats in the Lok Sabha polls, Narendra Modi’s poll managers led by Amit Shah are working overtime to improve the party’s sagging image in the Northern State of UP. The State has political significance as it sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha. Thus a ‘unique synthesis’ is being worked out by projecting Modi’s ‘development card’ as also lacing it with the party’s commitment for the Ram temple. “It has been realized that only the developmental card cannot work in UP where caste politics play a major role. Moreover, BJP’s governance parameters in UP have not been anything extra special,” says a key member in the Modi camp. Modi’s lieutenant Amit Shah has made the minority hub Rampur the area of his focus. The move is seen as a deliberate and well thought of strategy. “This will set the ball rolling for a neo-polarization of politics in UP,” a source said. In the process, Modi hopes to garner good support from the non-Yadav OBC section and upper caste Hindus. A section of BJP leaders also feel that the communal brand of politics especially would give a major boost to BJP prospects in Western UP wherein Congress, Samajwadi and BSP would be forced to resort to ‘competitive minority politics’. They feel that in districts like Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar and Baghpat where there is a sizeable minority population; the Gujjar and Jat voters traditionally known for their anti-Muslim voting pattern could gather around BJP. BJP sources in Ahmedabad said Modi has already received invitations from various socio-political organizations to visit UP. The BJP poll managers in their bid to return to power in the Centre and establish a foothold across pan India are also hoping for a big time revival in Maharashtra. In this Western State, the BJP and its oldest alliance partner Shiv Sena have tasted defeat more than once in both State Assembly and Lok Sabha elections rather convincingly. Thus, the Modi team is looking towards the Western State, which sends 48 MPs as a key springboard wherein both the saffron party and its partner Sena were once considered ‘a credible political force’.

Cautious Optimism:

However, there is a sizeable section in the BJP led by veteran Advani himself who say that Rajnath Singh and others in the party are banking too much on the so called Modi wave. The likes of Sushma Swaraj, S S Ahluwalia and Advani himself have cautioned the BJP leadership that the ‘weakening’ of the NDA should not be underestimated.  “At this rate, we will have no friends in UP and Bihar and the two States account for 120 seats. So where do we go from here?” asked a prominent pro-Advani camp leader. They also cite the instances where BJP is both friendless and also organizationally weak, West Bengal (42 seats), Odhisa (21) and Andhra (42). This is in addition to about 25 seats from the North East where BJP has only a marginal presence in Assam though it commands some elite votes in States like Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Meghalaya. “We will try to put up a better show in the North East. But electoral politics in the region is very complex,” admits Ahluwalia who was appointed party Vice President and Chairman of the working group on the North East.

Thus, essentially the debate remains - Can Modi deliver? More so the question has its own significance as the party is practically clueless about winning seats from States like Bengal and the North Eastern Region.

Another party veteran and former BJP chief Murli Manohor Joshi is more realistic when he told his confidants recently that the ‘misplaced ambition’ of individuals does not augur well. BJP politics is thus at a crossroads as is the national polity itself.