Ever since Modi had been anointed as the Prime Minister hopeful, the party has been talking about a ‘Modi Wave’ across the country. Is it so? For decades, the BJP has been out of power in the politically significant State of Uttar Pradesh which sends 80 Members of Parliament to the Lok Sabha. To revive the BJP’s dwindling fortune in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP has fielded its Prime Minister nominee Narendra Modi in the religious capital of India Varanasi. Every election is a gamble and every party fields its most winnable candidate. In 2014 Modi is the BJP’s best bet. Now, it is to be seen whether the Gujarat Chief Minister can turn the tide in favour of the BJP because it is really true that the incumbent regime headed by ‘Manmohan cum Sonia cum Rahul’ has failed to give India a strong Government. 

Modi has also been saying that they are eyeing for 272+ which of course should be the dream of a truly national party. But it is also true that compared to Congress, the BJP till now has not been able to strengthen its base in the North East

The opinion polls are also predicting that BJP is going to surpass its earlier tally of 182 seats. But the larger question arises as to how the saffron brigade will surpass this tally of 182 seats. With due respect to all the psephologists it would be pertinent to make the readers aware of the projection of seats that NDA was about to win in the 2004 general polls as per the psephologists’ prediction. Atal Bihari Vajpayee was at one time confident that he would return with a thumping majority but to his utter dismay the BJP came down to 138 seats from 182 seats. 

Modi has also been saying that they are eyeing 272+ which of course should be the dream of a truly national party. But it is also true that compared to Congress, the BJP till now has not been able to strengthen its base in the North East and barring Karnataka its presence in South India is also not that impressive. Under such circumstances the only route to capture Delhi is by forming alliances with small regional parties in certain States and accordingly both BJP and Congress are trying to do so. 

We have to understand clearly that the clout that the saffron brigade is enjoying in the corridors of power in Delhi is because of its strong regional leaders like Shivraj Singh Chouhan the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh, Dr. Raman Singh the Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh, Vasundhara Raje the Chief Minister of Rajasthan and of course last but not the least Narendra Modi the Chief Minister of Gujarat. By banking on their model of governance, the BJP is trying to woo the voters by saying - vote for us because we are a party with a difference. 

The kind of attention that the BJP pays in the Hindi heartland is missing here in the North East. The Assam State unit of BJP is headed by Sarbananda Sonowal who till a few years ago was with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP). He actively participated in the ‘Assam Agitation’. The latest entrant to the BJP fold is Chandra Mohan Patawari who was also a comrade of Sonowal forthe AGP. Though Modi is trying hard to toe the line of the Obamas and Clintons, he needs to understand that the political arithmetic which works in the US is not going to work here in Hindustan.is because of its strong regional leaders like Shivraj Singh Chouhan the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh, Dr. Raman Singh the Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh, Vasundhara Raje the Chief Minister of Rajasthan and of course last but not the least Narendra Modi the Chief Minister of Gujarat. By banking on their model of governance, the BJP is trying to woo the voters by saying - vote for us because we are a party with a difference. 

 

In America, national and international issues dominate the campaign trail but in India it is the local issues which find dominance. To justify this observation let us read this quote which CPM’s Barrackpore candidate Subhasini Ali told one scribe when asked what will be her issue during her campaign trail. She said, “The issue I want to raise is the rising number of crimes against women in the State that has a woman Chief Minister. Instead of facing the problem, the political leaders of the ruling party have a tendency to say that the allegation of a victim is fabricated. At times it has even said that the victim has invited the crime against herself. This cannot be tolerated”. 

Subhasini Ali should be reminded that she is contesting a general election and not an assembly election. But this is how Indian democracy functions. If Naveen Patnaik is tipped to retain his power it only because of the fact that Odisha lacks a regional leader who can give Bjiu junior a run for his money. At Silchar Kabindra Purkayastha has got the nomination once again even though his performance as an MP has not at all been satisfactory. This time Kabindra’s mascot is Modi. It is really unfortunate that even after getting so many chances he has failed to win the hearts of the denizens of Silchar. He will be contesting against Congress leader Sushmita Dev who is donning many caps. Apart from being an MLA she is also the chairperson of Silchar Municpal Board. She has mastered the art of sticking to the chair of power by hook or by crook. Is she then a better alternative to Kabindra? This will be decided by the aam aadmi. 

If BJP has failed to replace Kabindra Purkayastha then the party needs to introspect. The ‘AGP pass outs’ cannot be an answer. Fresh faces are the need of the hour. Suhmita’s performance is not that satisfactory either. She is the heir apparent of Sontosh Mohan Dev who lost badly in the last Lok Sabha polls. But yes his defeat in 2009 was penned by AIUDF supremo Maulana Badruddin Ajmal who took away a sizeable number of minority votes which Congress considered to be its own. The Muslims voted overwhelmingly for the perfume baron because they looked upon him as their messiah. 

In a country like India, caste and religion play an important role in the battle of ballots. This hard ‘political reality’ cannot be ignored and if one tries to overlook this fact, it could be said that he is living in a fool’s paradise. By injecting the Sarbanandas and Chandra Mohans the BJP’s dwindling fortune in Assam cannot be changed. A party which is trying to achieve the magic number 272 needs to create a pan - India presence from Kashmir to Kanyakumari. It needs to have its own leaders at the helm. The country indeed needs a strong alternative to Congress for the sake of democracy. The ‘third front fable’ which was the brain child of late comrade Harkishen Singh Surjeet has already proved to be a disaster. The real alliance will take shape after May 16. Now, it is to be seen who achieves or rather succeeds in achieving its ‘Mission 272+’. Till then the Prime Minister hopefuls will be in for a lot of sleepless nights.

Satraajit Palchoudhury