The lack of unity among the opposition political parties in Assam is going to be an advantage for the ruling Congress during the Lok Sabha polls notwithstanding the anti - incumbency factor working against it and the Modi wave arguably sweeping urban areas of the State. The Congress is contesting 13 out of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in Assam and has decided to remain out of the race in the Kokrajhar constituency in favour of its ally Bodoland People’s Front (BPF).

All eyes on Gaurav Gogoi Kaliabor Lok Sabha constituency in central Assam has been in the limelight because of the presence of Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi’s son Gaurav Gogoi as the Congress candidate in the fray. His key rivals are Dr. Arun Kumar Sharma of the AGP and Mrinal Saikia of the BJP. The 31 year old engineer turned politician Gaurav is contesting the polls from a constituency which earlier elected his father Tarun Gogoi and his uncle Dip Gogoi to the Lok Sabha. Besides Gaurav, Congress has nominated sitting MLA Sushmita Deb, daughter of veteran Congress leader and former Union minister Santosh Mohan Deb and Manas Bora son of Assam’s social welfare minister Akon Bora to contest the Lok Sabha polls from Silchar and Guwahati constituency respectively. Tarun Gogoi inducted his son into active politics in 2011 before the last Assembly elections in Assam and engaged him in electioneering in Titabor Legislative Assembly Constituency (LAC) which is represented by the senior Gogoi in the Assam Assembly, to allow him to have firsthand experience of electoral politics. Taun Gogoi however stated that it was Gaurav’s own decision to join politics so that he could work for the development of the people and get engaged in governance.

There is resentment within the Congress regarding the selection of candidates for some of the constituencies including Tezpur, Kaliabor, Barpeta, Jorhat and some of the senior leaders of the party have stated that it would be a tough election for Congress because of growing differences within the party as well as the anti - incumbency factor given that the party has been in power in Assam continuously since 2001. Still, the main opposition political parties in Assam namely the BJP, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) have failed to forge any kind of understanding so far in the State to prevent the division of anti - Congress votes.

The AGP, BJP virtually share the same vote base in the State and the lack of any tie-up between the two parties will be a boon to Congress which enjoys a bastion among over 35 lakh tea tribe voters in the State. The AGP and the BJP over the years have failed to make any dent in the Congress tea tribe bastion given that the two parties do not even have committees in the tea garden areas in Assam. The AIUDF which has managed to make some inroads into the Congress’ base among Muslims in the State has instead opted for putting up comparatively low profile candidates barring the ones in Barpeta and Dhubri constituencies so as to help Congress by preventing the division of Muslim votes between itself and the Congress. The AIUDF president Badruddin Ajmal has stated that the party would do anything possible to prevent BJP’s win in Assam and for that it was ready to help Congress thereby giving credence to the campaign that Congress and the AIUDF have struck a secret understanding. Secret for the reason that an official poll tie up with the AIUDF will cost the Congress dear in eastern Assam’s Hindu majority constituencies.

 A divided opposition and the poll strategy of the AIUDF which is apparently tilted towards helping Congress has prompted Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi to claim that the party will improve its tally to at least ten seats from the seven that it won in the 2009 polls. 

Bharatiya Janata Party’s apparent upsurge in Assam has taken its toll on regional Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) which has witnessed the exodus of a section of party leaders and members in the run up to the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections. A former president of the party Chandra Mohan Patowary and another senior leader as well as former minister in Assam Hitendra Nath Goswami have joined the BJP along with a host of their supporters. Both of them cited a lack of vision and drive on part of the incumbent AGP leadership which, they said, was not willing to infuse young blood into the party ranks. 

State BJP president Sarbanada Sonowal said Patowary and Goswami who have clean public images in Assam, would be instrumental in the further strengthening of the BJP in Assam. Patowary has already been accommodated as a member of the central election committee of the BJP and is the BJP poll candidate from Barpeta Lok Sabha constituency in western Assam.

A shrewd Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, the president of the AGP was trying very hard to have a tie-up with the saffron party for the next Lok Sabha polls so that he can prevent exodus of party men to the BJP. However, AGP’s attempt for a tie-up with the BJP was being stonewalled by the state BJP leadership headed by the president Sarbananda Sonowal who had joined BJP over two years back leaving the AGP because of his differences with Prafulla Kumar Mahanta. The AGP’s downhill journey in Assam started in 2001 when it received a severe drubbing at the hands of Congress and since then it has been on a downhill slide losing all the elections since then much to the disillusionment of the party workers and leaders. The leadership too has not made any discernible and concrete attempt to rejuvenate the party. As a result, party workers and a section of leaders have been looking for alternative options and BJP provides a viable alternative for them because of ideological similarities between the two parties especially in respect of the problem of illegal migration from Bangladesh to Assam.

ABSU support to BJP

It is a boon for the BJP in Assam that the influential All Bodo Students Union (ABSU) has decided to extend its support to candidates of the saffron party in the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls in the State. The ABSU which is the spearhead of the statehood movement of the Bodo tribe has announced that it will support the BJP candidates in Tezpur and Mangaldai constituencies R P Sharma and Ramen Deka respectively. These two constituencies have sizeable Bodo tribe voters after Kokrajhar constituency where the ABSU has backed independent candidate U G Brahma. There is a four-cornered contest in Tezpur constituency where the BJP candidate R P Sharma faces a challenge from Congress candidate Bhupen Bora, AGP candidate and sitting MP Joseph Toppo and rebel Congress candidate Mani Kumar Subba.

In Mangaldai BJP candidate and sitting MP Ramen Deka’s main challenge comes in the form of Congress candidate Kirip Chaliha. Deka had won from Mangaldai in 2004 and 2009 polls and ABSU had extended support to him on both the occasions. The ABSU president Promod Bodo informed that Mangaldai constituency had about 3.5 lakh voters from the Bodo tribe community while there are about 1.5 lakh voters from the community in the Tezpur constituency. The ABSU president claims that the students’ body has influence over 80 per cent of Bodo voters in the two constituencies. The ABSU is opposed to Congress for the latter’s lack of support towards the Bodos’ demand for a separate State. The ABSU president said that the students’ body found the BJP more ‘open-mined’ towards the demand for a separate State. The ABSU’s proximity to the BJP dates back to 2003 when the Bodo Peace Accord was signed under the regime of the BJP - led NDA Government in New Delhi to restore peace in the troubled Bodo tribe dominated areas in Assam. The accord granted autonomy to Bodos in the form of the Bodoland Territorial Autonomous District Council (BTC) under the provisions of the amended Sixth Schedule.

A divided opposition and the poll strategy of the AIUDF which is apparently tilted towards helping Congress has prompted Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi to claim that the party will improve its tally

Meanwhile, Congress has expelled one of its leaders in Assam and former Lok Sabha MP Mani Kumar Subba from the party for six years with immediate effect for contesting the elections as an independent candidate after being denied a poll ticket by the party. Subba who was three-time MP from Tezpur constituency in Assam had represented Tezpur constituency thrice in the Lok Sabha since 1998 to 2009. Congress has this time fielded one of its MLAs, Bhupen Bora from Tezpur constituency. Subba’s candidature is construed to hamper the prospects of the Congress candidate in Tezpur constituency given that he is expected to win the votes of a sizeable section of the Nepal community voters in the constituency. Congress lost Tezpur to the regional AGP in the 2009 polls when Subba was defeated by AGP’s Joseph Toppo. 

Militancy Shadow on Polls

Though insurgency has been on the wane in Assam after the Government has managed to woo many outlawed militant groups to negotiations during the last three years, a handful of insurgent groups are still at large posing a security threat especially during the polls.

Friends turn foes in the ballot battle the Assam Lok Sabha election scene as Assam has witnessed some former comrades in arms for the regional Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) fighting these polls as opponents with allegiances to different political parties. The most discernible examples of this is confined to the prestigious Guwahati constituency and Barpeta Lok Sabha constituency in western Assam where veterans from the same stock that is AGP are now in the fray as opponents. In Guwahati, the BJP has fielded former union minister of state for water resources minister and sitting MP Bijoya Chakraborty who is facing a triangular contest involving Birendra Prasad Baishya of the AGP and Manas Bora of Congress. Chakraborty and Baishya were party colleagues in AGP as well as comrades during the six year - long (1979-1985) Assam Agitation against illegal Bangladeshi migrants. Chakraborty was a Rajya Sabha MP for the AGP for a full term from 1985 before she decided to shift her allegiance to the BJP in the 1990s. Baishya is a veteran from the AGP who had been to the Rajya Sabha on two occasions. He is contesting the Lok Sabha polls for the first time that too against his former party colleague Bijoya Chakraborty. A similar situation in prevailing in the religious-minority dominated Barpeta Lok Sabha constituency where two veterans who are identified as seasoned politicians from the AGP are fighting the polls as opponent as one of them had shifted his allegiance to the BJP on the eve of the elections. Chandra Mohan Patowary was a former president of the AGP who decided to join BJP just before the election and has been given ticket to contest from Barpeta. Stunned by the departure of a veteran leader like Patowary from its ranks, the AGP leadership decided to field one of its veterans Phani Bhusan Choudhury from Barpeta constituency. Both Patowary and Choudhury are best of the friends on a personal level and Choudhury was the working president of the AGP when Patowary was its president. Both were working closely also as leaders of the Assam Agitation before the formation of the AGP. Choudhury, in fact, has stated that he felt betrayed when Patowary joined the BJP without even caring to inform him about his decision. Patowary says that Choudhury is and will remain one of his best friends despite their new political status. Their presence in the fray will go a long way in helping the Congress candidate and sitting MP Ismail Hussain in Barpeta constituency given that non-Muslim votes are likely to be divided between the AGP and the BJP candidates.

The full team of the Election Commission of India which made a stock - taking visit to Assam recently also expressed that security was one of the major concerns for the Election Commission during polls in Assam. The Election Commission team issued instructions to the State Home Department to take all possible steps to ensure a violence free poll in the State.

One of the most potent insurgent groups that is threatening to cast its shadow on the polls is the outlawed National Democratic Front of Bodoland (Sangbijit) or NDFB (S) which has already issued a warning against the Congress and the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) for their alleged ‘anti Bodo policies’. The outfit has issued a threat to the Congress candidate for Tezpur Lok Sabha seat, Bhupen Bora terming him as anti - Bodo and anti - tribal prompting the Assam police to augment the security cover for the Congress candidate who is a sitting MLA and a Parliamentary Secretary in Assam.

The outfit called a bandh on the 27th of March in order to prevent people from attending the election rally of Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi in the Tezpur Lok Sabha constituency. In a statement issued through the local media, the outfit claimed that Rahul Gandhi had failed to promote the cause of the Bodo tribals and warned him against entering ‘Bodoland’ territory. The NDFB (S) has also asked the people not to attend Gandhi’s rally and warned of ‘dire consequences’ if its diktat is not followed. However, Rahul Gandhi’s rally was held sans any hitch at Biswanath Chariali in Sonitpur district in North Assam.

The lack of unity among the opposition political parties in Assam is going to be an advantage for the ruling Congress during the Lok Sabha polls notwithstanding the anti - incumbency factor working against it and the Modi wave arguably sweeping urban areas of the State.

The outfit which had broken away from its parent organization that is now under a truce with the Government of India is fighting for a sovereign Bodoland encompassing the entire northern bank of the Brahmaputra River from Kokrajhar district in west Assam to Dhemaji in east Assam. This northern bank of the mighty river has four Lok Sabha constituencies namely Kokrajhar, Mangaldai, Tezpur and Lakhimpur.

Apart from the NDFB (S), the anti - talks faction of the outlawed United Liberation Front of Assam known as ULFA (Independent) is also under strict vigil by security forces in the eastern Assam areas where the outoutfit has a stronghold in areas bordering Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland. Meanwhile, the Assam Police has made arrangements for special chopper services thanks to the Central Government to deal with any exigency during the elections in any remote part of the State. The DGP of Assam Police Khagen Sharma told members of the media that initially two choppers would be kept ready by Assam Police for use as and when the situation demands. He said that the overall security arrangements for the elections would be reviewed from time to time for its effectiveness.

Even as the political parties are launching a campaign of mud - slinging and politics of gimmick during the polls even as they are avoiding to make any concrete commitment to resolve the burning issues in Assam, All Assam Students’ Union (AASU), the most influential students’ body in Assam and the spearhead of the sustained movement against illegal migration from Bangladesh has asked all the political parties to spell out their clear cut policy vis-à-vis the burning problems of Assam before the Lok Sabha polls.

The AAU adviser Dr Samujjal Bhattacharrya said that political parties were in the habit of making tall promises before the people of Assam in the run up to every election, but it was time for them to state their clear - cut policy and action plan for the resolution of the burning problems of the State. The AASU leader demanded all political parties to spell out their action plan to solve the problem of illegal migration from Bangladesh which is posing a threat to the identity of indigenous people in the State and the sealing of the India-Bangladesh border to stop infiltration across it. The AASU wants to know the stand of the parties regarding the constitutional safeguard to the indigenous people in Assam and updating of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) as decided during the Prime Minister level tripartite meeting with the Government of India and the Government of Assam way back on May 5, 2005. The students’ body has asked all the parties to press for declaring Assam’s perennial problem of flood and erosion as a national problem so that adequate measures can be taken to solve the same with sufficient funds from the Central Government.

Moushumi Bora