There is no gainsaying the fact that the BJP wave has had its impact in some of the States in this region. When Narendra Modi came to Imphal there was a boycott call from some underground organisations. Besides this, some Muslim organisations had bycotted the visit. These Muslims are indebted to the Congress party. This was for the first time in Manipur that a Muslim politician was nominated as a candidate for the Rajya Sabha elections. However, the BJP sources said that all the Muslims in the State had not boycotted the visit. Chaoba Thounaojam, the president of the State unit of the BJP contends that some hirelings had announced the boycott. There must be some element of truth to this since there was a large attendance of Muslims in the meeting addressed by Narendra Modi.

The Congress functionaries in Manipur say that the party will win both the seats in the State. They say that although the Modi wave had swept the country the Congress retained its position in Mizoram. But then it takes some time for the national political wave to have its impact in the remote North East States. This was experienced in the past. But then in spite of the complacence (or self deception?) of the Congress functionaries in Manipur the Modi wave may have some impact in the forthcoming elections.

One minus point of the disparate opposition parties is that they cannot take a firm stand together. Ten political parties had formed the Left and Secular Alliance. From the very inception it faced rough weather in the sense that one political party said that it was never a formal member of the Alliance and that its name had been included in the Alliance without the approval of the party. The LSA had selected Nara Moirangthem, the CPI state secretary as the candidate for the Inner Manipur constituency but it failed to select a candidate for the reserved Outer Manipur constituency. In the final meeting of the LSA, some political parties had remained absent and it became impossible for the parties to select a common candidate as there was no quorum. The NCP had announced that its member, C. Doungel, a former minister was made the common candidate and appealed to the absent parties to support him but there was no response from the parties. Gangmei says that it is good that there was some political exercise in the opposition camps. However he brushed aside the suggestion that the opposition parties may win any of the seats. He said that in the last elections the Congress won 42 seats in the 60 member Manipur Assembly.

All that was made public was the casual statement by Chaoba Thounaojam, the BJP president to repeal the AFSPA if the party comes to power.

However this contention is not based on hard facts. The Congress had never won a comfortable number of seats. However this time there was a tactical mistake on the part of the seven proscribed underground organisations which had imposed a ban on the Congress ahead of the last Assembly elections. The people of Manipur enjoy any case of throwing down the gauntlet and that is why most of them had voted for the Congress defying the ban. Indications are that in future there may not be such bans.

The Congress also scored a tactical victory by nominating Abdul Salam to the Rajya Sabha. No other party had thought of doing so in the past. There are always five or six Muslim MLAs in Manipur and it is as clear as the pikestaff that the upbeat Muslim voters will vote for the two Congress candidates, Meinya Thokchom and Thangsho Baite who are seeking re - election. There was blistering criticism of the LSA which is seeking a non-Congress and non-BJP alternative in Manipur. It was stated that most of the parties and the functionaries had a close nexus with the Congress at one time or other and that they had sponged off the ruling party. As such this alliance lacks credibility, Gangmei said. From time to time, the LSA common candidate Nara Moirangthem has been trying to speak out against the acts of commissions and omissions of the Congress Government in Manipur. However his incoherent words are lost in the political wilderness since nobody is paying any attention.

His party, the CPI, had been the coalition partner of the Congress in Manipur for ten years. This time perhaps the party would have been in the ministry. But this was not to be since the CPI failed to secure a single seat. People were fed up with the double role of the CPI. As a ruling partner its ministers extracted the maximum benefits and at the same time they spoke like political enemies. Besides this, the rank and file of the CPI used to flay the Congress every now and then. Once they asked the CPI minister to resign if the Chief Minister Okram Ibobi would not give more ministerial berths to the party. Though the Congress was in a numerical position to form a Congress Government the Chief Minister continued the coalition culture to send a silent message to the dissidents. Once a Congress MLA Bijoy Koijam said that the shameless CPI ministers were sticking to the Congress like a limpet and they should be thrown overboard. There was no reaction from the silent but red faced CPI ministers.

The Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, rampant corruption, exploitation of the people, growing unemployment and acts of commissions and omissions have been relegated to the back seat. All that was made public was the casual statement by Chaoba Thounaojam, the BJP president to repeal the AFSPA if the party comes to power. Rahul Gandhi made a maiden visit to Imphal on March 19th this year and in his 25 minute speech which was mere parroting of the State Government claiabout repealing it.

This battle royale will be fought between the Congress which is fielding the incumbent party MPs and the BJP which is on a fishing expedition by fielding two academics. The BJP had rejected the application for a ticket by Indira Oinam who was defeated by the Chief Minister in the last Assembly elections by a very narrow margin. She has resigned, has taken along with her thousands of supporters and is contesting as an independent. This will dent the BJP. The other non-BJP and non-Congress parties are yet to catch the eyes of the voters with promises, no matter how superficial and outlandish they are. Muslims and other sections are trying their best to depict the BJP as the pro-Hindu party which has no place in Manipur where there are different communities. The situation was further aggravated by the way the Congress Government had nominated a Muslim politician for the lone Rajya Sabha seat. Considering the fact that the party has not secured a single seat in the last two elections in the Assembly it will be no easy thing to claw its way to victory.

From the conspicuous silence of Rahul Gandhi on many burning issues it is construed that the Congress has no remedy for these ills facing the people. He failed to utter a word on the repeal of the AFSPA. This is despite the fact that the judicial inquiry commission had recommended its repeal and all sections of people have been demanding the same. Irom Sharmila has been on a fast unto death quest since November 4, 2000 on the issue. The list of alleged excesses committed by the befuddled security personnel on the civil populace is rather long and yet not a single personnel has been convicted since the AFSPA says that no such prosecution can be made without first obtaining prior approval from the Union Government. No such approval has been given fearing a general demoralisation among the rank and file of the forces. All Gandhi boasted of was of the lifting of the AFSPA from 7 Assembly segments in Imphal on August 12, 2004. This was done to deflect the public attack following the alleged rape cum murder of a girl and other forms of excesses. The militants are not respecting it and instances are there to substantiate this.

Gandhi had no word for protecting the territory of Manipur in the light of the construction of a border fence deep inside Manipur. Besides it is of no concern to the Congress that talks are being held on the demand for an alternative arrangement for the Nagas in Manipur. The United Naga Council says that the Nagas do not want to stay under the communal Government. Potable water is available only from the private suppliers who sell this at Rs.150 per 500 litres. There is a brisk sale of bottled water in Manipur. At an average people get power supply for 5 hours a day.

In such a scenario, the battle royale will be lacklustre in Manipur.

Kavita Laithangbam