The element of surprise is the most charming thing in politics. The decision of Nagaland Chief Minister Neiphio Rio to contest the Lok Sabha elections and shift to New Delhi is pegged not only with the ‘surprise element’ but also has powerful political messages. This is actually a reverse swing as normally northeastern politicians abhor New Delhi limelight – of course unlike P A Sangma – and prefer to shine in the backyards of hills and valleys of the northeastern tip of the country. 

But in the case of Rio’s decision, a number of factors are possibly working and some of them need closer scrutiny. One version suggests that he is being egged by the National Socialist Council of Nagaland Isak-Muivah (NSCM-IM faction) to pursue strongly with the central government to make forward movement on the Naga Peace Talks that had started way back in 1997 during I K Gujral time. The negotiations are almost stuck there where they were a few years back.

So the reading is that the presence of a Naga leader in the union cabinet would also help push the talks and virtually take it out of the black hole that Dr Manmohan Singh’s regime had put it in.

Another school of thought suggests that Rio knowing the Naga people’s mind wants to ‘rehabilitate’ himself properly before he is actually shown the door from the corridors of power in Kohima. He is the only Naga leader so far who has ruled the state for 10 years consecutively and even won an election. The illustrious S C Jamir, Rio’s former mentor-turned-bitter foe, had no doubt ruled for 10 years between 1993 and 2003. But Jamir was handed a shocking defeat in the 2003 assembly polls after Neiphio Rio had quit Congress and led the regional party forces to victory. He has been in power since then.

“So technically, Rio could be trying to avoid the saturation point that comes rather easily among Naga voters,” says a longtime Nagaland watcher and who had served in the central intelligence agency. Rio could, however, go back to Kohima secretariat if he fails to get the cabinet berth. 

There’s yet another twist in the tale. 

Reports say Team Modi has already shared these views with a section of intelligence agencies and experts on ASEAN region comprising Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam.

The grapevine has it that the idea for Rio to move to Delhi was given by the BJP, which wants to work hard on the Look East Policy and penetrate beyond the Myanmar region.

Sources close to BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi, told Eastern Panorama that the Gujarat Chief Minister does not want to play the well established stereo-typed ‘run of the mill’ game. In fact, he told a meeting of closed door experts that he could bring in major reforms in the functioning of the Ministry of External Affairs itself and encourage ‘greater engagement’ with South Asian neighbours and other smaller countries.

In diplomatic parlance ‘winds of change’ is blowing across Asia. Today, there is a growing realization that South East Asia actually begins with North East India. And thus the Look East policy envisioned by the Vajpayee government focusing on economic and trade has become more relevant

“In diplomatic parlance ‘winds of change’ are blowing across Asia. Today, there is a growing realization that South East Asia actually begins with North East India and thus the Look East policy envisioned by the Vajpayee Government focusing on economic and trade has become more relevant,” says a BJP leader in the party’s Foreign Policy cell.

The BJP strategists feel that the attempt to explore revamping the Ministry of DoNER (Development of North East Region) once Modi assumes power in the centre must be seen in line with this Look East Policy endeavour only. “It only reflects BJP’s sincerity of purpose towards North East. After all, the ministry of DONER was set up by the NDA Government itself,” a party leader said alleging that the UPA Government had only tried to downgrade it.

In fact, BJP chief Rajnath Singh last year authorized one Naga leader, J Rengma, to visit Myanmar and get feedback on possible enhanced engagement with Nagas settled in Myanmar.

Greater Nagaland – A key-sub plot In the entire episode of new paradigm shift in foreign policy working vis-à-vis North East India and Neiphio Rio trying his fortune for a parliamentary seat (read union cabinet berth), key sub-plots should not be missed. Firstly, the writ of the militant group National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IM) led by the duo of Isak Chishi Swu and Thuingalang Muivah – which is known for being close to the Rio regime – will perhaps be  strengthened further. Another impact could be that NPF with the renewed and enhanced mandate and a possible union minister will now go overboard for ‘Greater Nagaland’. This could upset the socio-political apple carts in Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam as there has been violent protest to the ‘Greater Nagaland concept’ itself. Handling this quagmire – a possible bombshell – would remain a big puzzle for the future Home Minister and the Prime Minister. Various Naga bodies from across the region are already pinning hopes on NPF for pursuing a long pending ‘Naga dream’ of bringing all Naga contiguous areas under one umbrella.

There has also been tremendous interest about Myanmar among the Nagas on the Indian side of the border. A sizeable portion in western Myanmar is dominated by ethnic Nagas, who share biological fraternity with the Nagas in India.

Lately, Nagaland’s ruling party, Naga People’s Front (NPF) and even BJP have evinced keen interest on the affairs of Nagas in western Myanmar. In fact, common Nagas in the States of Manipur and Nagaland also believe that Nagas in western Myanmar are now looking forward to “the Nagas and the citizens of northeast India” to extend a hand of friendship and support to them.

Apparently, BJP wants to take advantage of these sanguine sentiments.

It is in this context that the party has worked out an understanding with Nagaland Chief Minister Neiphio Rio, who contested the lone Lok Sabha seat as the NPF-BJP candidate.

“The message to Rio was that he could be included in the union cabinet under Modi. So far, no Naga has been made cabinet minister in Delhi. This will give a positive signal also to resolve the pending Naga political problem,” says a senior BJP leader.

The BJP strategists feel that the attempt to explore revamping the Ministry of DoNER (Development of North East Region) once Modi assumes power in the centre must be seen in line with this Look East Policy endeavour only.

This optimism is shared by strategic experts. Reports say Team Modi has already shared these views with a section of intelligence agencies and experts on ASEAN region comprising Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam.

Now, even experts say that if Narendra Modi is serous about the Look East Policy and is playing a more purposeful diplomacy in the ASEAN region, there will be win-win situation for North East India. In the North East paradigm foreign policy vis-a-vis South Asian neighbours so far was better understood only as a tool to fight terrorism or counter insurgency. Modi’s plans envisage the crucial dimension of development and infrastructure. 

So, the greater plans include not only including Rio in the cabinet but also possibly hand him portfolios like Commerce (or at least a part of it) to make the Indian foreign policy road map more economic and Look East Policy focused.

This is truly path-breaking thinking on the part of someone who is known to his critics for trying Hindu chauvinistic politics as well as someone blending it effectively with governance and development. Success, they say, is how high one can bounce back when you hit bottom. This is the story of Narendra Modi.

Swati Deb