Curiously the eight legislators of Congress are mere onlookers as the war-cry has been sparked off by the members of the ruling NPF with only BJP keeping a “close tap” at the developments.

As we go to the press, the crisis is far from over and the possibility of a brief spell of President’s Rule and fresh elections loom large.

“The crisis is an intra-party affair of NPF. Why should we burn fingers? NPF should settle their internal matter first,” says Tapir Gao, BJP In-charge Nagaland adding “our four MLAs will be with the NPF as part of Democratic Alliance of Nagaland (DAN) coalition dharma. NPF has to settle its leadership issue”.
In Delhi, a key central BJP leader requested that he be “excused” from fielding questions on the possibility of mid-term elections but said, “a political party should be always battle ready”.

Battle Ready :

The T R Zeliang camp in NPF is aware of the political import of the phrase ‘battle ready’.
“Politically, a section of the BJP leaders in Delhi would prefer fresh elections as putting up a good show in the Christian stronghold border state will boost Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s image,” a NPF insider told Eastern Panorama.

The political crisis in ruling NPF in Nagaland, infamous for political instability, was sparked off after 11 Ministers in the T R Zeliang ministry had resigned and the rebel group elected Kaito Aye, a legislator from Satakha assembly constituency in Sema region as a “new leader”. Kaito Aye claimed the backing of 23 NPF members out of 38 and thus complained to the Governor P B Acharya that the minority Zeliang ministry be dismissed.

The backing of NPF stalwart Neiphio Rio, a former Chief Minister and sitting Lok Sabha MP to rebel group led by Kaito made things appear that the incumbent chief minister’s days were numbered. Obviously the Zeliang camp has countered this.

But as the crisis has lingered now for over a fortnight and chief minister Zeliang exuded confidence more than once, it gives an impression that once underestimated a comparative low-profile Zeliang too has mustered the art of survival pretty well.

In the given situation, the chief minister is hardly on back foot, analysed a central government official who is aware of developments in Nagaland and said by demanding convening of an emergency session of the assembly, Zeliang has actually stumped Rio-Kaito group badly.

Psychological Battle:

Following the state cabinet’s formal recommendation to convene a session for trial of strength, actually, the ball remained in the Governor Acharya’s court. “We are glad, we have won the round one, the psychological battle,” a close aide of the chief minister says adding, “a kind of ‘don’t drag us in the state-level mess’ approach of central BJP leadership has only so far frustrated the machinations of rebels or the Lok Sabha MP, Neiphio Rio.”

Ironically, the present crisis owes its origin to cold war between Zeliang and Neiphio Rio.
Zeliang, a former lieutenant of Rio when the latter was chief minister, was handpicked by the former Chief Minister himself when the latter moved to Delhi as Lok Sabha MP.

However, apparently Rio was upset with BJP’s central leadership as he missed the cabinet berth in the Modi government contrary to “what was assured to him before the 2014 Lok Sabha polls”.

In the meantime and perhaps for obvious reasons, Rio and Zeliang also fell apart and there were reports that a section of NPF leaders also wanted Rio to get back as Chief Minister, or was it the other way?
It is any body’s guess even in Delhi that a political light weight Kaito Aye is only a dummy ‘rebel leader’ and the choice of a CM-in-waiting as the real strings are with Rio and his Rajya Sabha counterpart, Khekiho Zhimommi.

Tapir Gao, BJP in-charge Nagaland, sums up the dichotomy vis-à-vis BJP’s decision on the situation well. “We are at the visitors’ gallery. Our central leaders are keeping close watch on the development and not interested in interfering in NPF matters,” he said in Delhi on January 10 even as former Nagaland Chief Minister and sitting Lok Sabha MP Neiphio Rio, Rajya Sabha member Khekiho and NPF rebel legislator Kaito Aye met senior BJP leaders.

T R Zeliang himself also camped in Delhi for few days and met among others, BJP national general secretary (Organisation), Ram Lal, an RSS man.

“I get the sense that the BJP high command is unwilling to interfere in the present crisis as these are internal matters of NPF and chiefly based on misinformation campaign by some disgruntled elements in my party,” says Zeliang.

The battle has only intensified and also turned a bit nasty and personal. The rebel group issued a press statement claiming a huge amount has been deposited recently in a bank account.

For his part, Zeliang has blamed Rio, his former boss, of precipitating the crisis while the rebel group led by Rio and Kaito has split the party practically announcing “election of a new President Noke Wangnao” and suspending the veteran Shurhozelie, the NPF president who has backed T R Zeliang in the present impasse.

Reaching out to the BJP central leadership, the rebel group has urged Governor P B Acharya to dismiss Zeliang ministry and install a popular government under the leadership of legislator Kaito Aye. “Our future Kaitio government will work to ensure a positive partnership with the Modi government in the centre and strengthen the peace process to bring an early solution to the Naga issue,” says Noke Wangnao, newly elected President of NPF rebel group.

The political crisis in ruling NPF in Nagaland was sparked off after 11 Ministers in the T R Zeliang ministry had resigned and the rebel group elected Kaito Aye, a legislator from Satakha assembly constituency in Sema region as a “new leader”. Kaito Aye claimed the backing of 23 NPF members out of 38

Amid dramatic turns and twists in the political crisis in Nagaland, the state Chief Minister T R Zeliang also extended loyalty towards BJP high command despite local state unit pledging support to the rebels. “Our decision to support rebel legislators was based on head counts,” clarified Nagaland BJP chief Chuba Ao amid reports that the saffron party’s central leadership did not approve of the move.

“The NPF and BJP have been functioning effectively and maintaining a healthy relation within the state as well as at the national level since 2003,” says an aide of Chief Minister T R Zeliang, Apong Pongener.

With ball in the court of Governor P B Acharya, a lifelong RSS man, the BJP central leadership feels things are in their “grip”. T R Zeliang is also confident and feels with the assembly Speaker Chotisuh Sazo is in his Zeliang camp he would be able to maneuver requisite numbers.

The BJP, however, is cautious that Zeliang does not ally with 8 Congress legislators.The saffron party strategists say they can utilize the duration of President’s Rule six months to one year to “revamp” BJP which is organisationally “very weak and virtually no where” in the predominantly Christian state.

The Congress party in Nagaland has eight members in 60-member House.

It has appealed to the Governor to rescue people from the “clutches of paralysed governance and restore the principles of democracy, hijacked by the internal tussle of the rulingNPF party”.