ASSAM

Tarun Gogoi, the Chief Minister who has been in power since 2001 is now seeking a fourth term in a row. It will be a miracle if Gogoi and his party win for the fourth time with anti-incumbency sharing in his face. The BJP would like to improve its performance and is dreamig to form the government with coalition partners. It has an alliance with Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) led by Prafulla Kumar Mahanta and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) led by Hagrama Mohilary. These two regional parties like BJP are against the alleged infiltration from Bangladesh. AGP had earlier tasted fruits of power twice. BJP was also able to give tickets to all eight Congress rebel MLAs. BJP’s chief ministerial candidate Sarbananda Sonowal asked the party workers to walk extra miles to wrest powerKerala politics is totally different from other states. The electorates of the state do not prefer to elect the same party in second term. During 2011 assembly election, UDF led by Congress had 72 seats and LDF led by CPI(M) had 68 seats in 142 assembly seats. Congress in the state has been facing anti-incumbancy where Ommen Chandy, the chief minister himself has been targeted to accept graft in solar scam. In addition, half dozen ministers have been enrolled in different scams. CPI(M), a big brother of LDF has succeded in encashing the sentiments of voters and is optimistic to form the next government provided all factions of the party stay together and work hard unitedly. BJP, on the other hand had sterling performance in civic elections held in last november particularly in urban areas. BJP is going to have an alliance with local organisation namely Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) which has suppoort of Ezhavas, a backward community. This caste constitutes eighteen percent vote and earlier used to support LDF. SNDP like BJP is concerned about Hindu unity. BJP is trying hard to wean away the Ezhavas communjity from the LDF. Asianet, the prime channel of Kerala has predicted that BJP will make inroads this time to assembly getting 5 to 6 seats.

There are multi-cornered contests to be seen in TN election. Jayalaltha is poised to comeback despite the corruption cases in which she was convicted for four years. Although the Karnataka High Court had acquited her, the case is pending before Supreme Court. Since the party entirely depends on her charisma, she has proved her adminstrative skills after the rain havoc last year. Her main advantage is weak opposition.DMK-Congress would fight together whereas Left parties, PMK, DMDK are contesting seperately to make more easier for Amma to be in power once again. The ageing DMK supremo M. Karunanidhi will lead the main opposition but he is facing family feuds as well as health problems. BJP is aiming to expand its base and is hopefully open an account this time.

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