The emergence of the AUDF in the assembly elections of 2006 had cost the Congress as many as five seats as the AUDF won in the three assembly segments including the prestigious Dhubri assembly seat which had been a strong hold of the Congress since independence.

In this parliamentary election too, AUDF led by Badruddin Azmal will seemingly set the Congress back more than any other party in at least five seats across Assam by severely cutting into its (Congress’) vote bank.

The Congress is most likely to loose this time in Dhubri while AUDF candidates will become a major threat to of the Congress candidates for the Barpeta, Mongaldoi, Silchar and Lakhimpur parliamentary seats.

Apart from winning few religious minority dominated seats, AUDF presence in the political arena of Assam will continue to spoil the prospects of Congress candidates while the major opposition parties like AGP- BJP will reap the benefits.

However, the AGP-BJP could not gain from the presence of the AUDF in the fray for the Dhubri parliamentary constituency following the rejection of nomination paper of its (AJP - BJP) candidate.

The nomination papers of the BJP candidate Nilimoy Prodhani was rejected owing to non-submission of A and B form  along with the nomination papers.

The BJP candidate Nilimoy Prodhani alleged that a well-thought of conspiracy was hatched against him so that his nomination papers were cancelled.

AGP legislator from Bilasipara (East), Prasanta Kumar Baruah who was present during the filing of nomination papers on March 30 informed that on the very day it was pointed out that Mr. Prodhani’s nomination papers were not complemented by the A and B forms and thus, these should be immediately submitted. “No one paid any heed to my words in spite of the said forms being available with the BJP office bearer at that time. Moreover, I personally met Nilimoy Prodhani at Chandardinga fair  two days after the  filing nomination papers near Salkocha and reminded him about the urgency of submission of A and B forms,” Mr. Baruah said.

A bewildered BJP expelled the party candidate, Nilimoy Prodhani and extended support to Rastriya Sena candidate, Arun Chandra Das to keep the AGP-BJP vote bank intact. But this did little to save the day and the votes were split.

After the rejection of nomination of the BJP’s official candidate,  the political scenario in Dhubri parliamentary constituency had become hazy which was otherwise a favorable ground for the Congress as the rise of the AUDF in the religious minority dominated constituency of Dhubri has turned into a nightmare for the Congress.

In spite of this, Congress found solace in being able to woo the Hindu voters of BJP-AGP in its favour to make up for the loss of a big chunk of religious minority votes. 

However, it remains to be seen as to how the 4.72 lakh Hindu voters out of total 13,75,585 react and swing in favour of the Congress when the AGP-BJP extended support to Rastriya Sena candidate, Arun Chandra Das in the absence of their official candidate in the fray.

However, according to reports, AGP-BJP traditional vote banks have been fractured into many pieces. AGP votes reportedly swung in favour of AUDF while a majority of BJP votes went to Congress. This is high speculation  yet close to ground reality.

Sensing a goof up between the Congress and a was rejected owing to non-submissection of the BJP leaders which allegedly led to the rejection of the nomination of BJP candidate, AUDF also reportedly made inroads into the Hindu voters and this was the reason why Badruddin Azmal had campaigned in the Hindu dominated areas of Dhubri parliamentary constituency extensively. 

Though the Congress has three associate legislators under its fold in Dhubri parliamentary constituency, it is still not strong enough to take on AUDF chief Badruddin Azmal who enjoys the support of the fanatic common and downtrodden people of the Char areas and of late has become a messiah for them.

Sitting Congress MP Anwar Hussain who is seeking re-election from Dhubri said that though his fight is obviously against the AUDF chief, he is the least bothered as conscious voters know what he (Hussain) has done for the constituency.

Anwar Hussain said that as the sitting MP, he had managed to bring about the reopening of the Rupshi air port and has got Rs. 5 crore sanctioned out of Rs. 65 crore for the total renovation of the airstrip. Rs. 207 crore has also been sanctioned for the reopening of the international river port at Dhubri.

“Moreover, a broad gauge railway line is being laid and train services from Dhubri to Guwahati are likely to be resumed from October this year,” Anwar Hussain said. 

Hussain’s promise to construct a bridge from Dhubri to Fakirganj might have an impact on the voters, Hussain hopes.

Contrary to the claim made by the Congress on the development front, Anwar Hussain’s arch rival Badruddin Azmal said that the Congress has eaten up the most precious modes of communication - air-port, river-port and railway and left the roads of Dhubri and Goalpara district in the most dilapidated condition over the last 60 years of rule.

“If people voted me to parliament, I will give stress on creating job avenues and set up small-scale industries in the villages and construct all the roads of Dhubri and Goalpara districts,” Azmal said.

It all remains to be seen what is inside the box?

Bijoy  Sharma