Political shrewdness 

Political shrewdness Known for his political shrewdness and acumen, Gogoi has succeeded in bringing several outfits like the DHD, UPDS, Adivasi Cobra Militant Force, Adivasi Birsa Commando Force, the BLT and the dreaded NDFB to the mainstream. Though the ULFA is yet to respond to the peace overtures, Gogoi has ensured that its potential for violence is considerably lowered. Political observers say the threat from the proscribed outfit is now not as potent as it once was. Several top ranking ULFA cadres have surrendered along with their followers. It may be recalled that the dissension in the ULFA rank and file set in after the gruesome Dhemaji blast in which several innocent children lost their lives on Independence Day in 2005. This incident dealt a grievous blow to and greatly debilitated the outfit. 

Satisfactory solution

If Gogoi has forced ULFA militants to keep a low profile, he has also succeeded in bringing solution to the vexed Bodo problem by first paving the way for the creation of Bodoland Territorial Autonomous Districts and successfully holding elections to the Bodoland Territorial Council. This is by no means a mean achievement. Though the Bodo Accord was signed way back in February 1993 it did not bring in the desired results because of lack of clarity in the Centre’s policy as well as the previous regime in the state on the Bodoland question. Today, there is relative calm on the Bodo front. With the change in atmosphere, the NDFB, another major Bodo militant outfit, realising that the days of militancy are virtually over, signed a ceasefire pact with the Centre and the Assam Government, leading to suspension of operations for the first time in two decades of insurgency by the group. It is now up to the Central and the State Governments to ensure that the peace process does not get grounded by any minor hitch in order to bring about lasting peace in the Bodo heartland. 

The Chief Minister has also apparently gone to the maximum extent to accommodate the aspirations of the plains tribals. By offering autonomous councils to Deuri, Sonowal-Kachari and Thengal-Kachari, Gogoi has virtually taken the wind of these agitations. Exercises are on to grant autonomy to other plains tribal groups. Simultaneously, a bold recommendation to accord tribal status to the Tai-Ahoms, Koch-Rajbongshis, the Morans, Mottocks, Chutias and the tea tribes has been made to the Centre. These have put him into a centre of controversy, as he is accused of encouraging ethnic divide, but Gogoi claims that vesting political autonomy to distinctive ethnic groups could only save the Assamese.

Gogoi’s policy has, indeed, softened the tribal mood and prevented tribal alienation for the time being. However, there is no dearth of tension points in Assam, particularly in its tribal areas and what appeared to be most disturbing is the unsuccessful attempt of ethnic cleansing in the North Cachar Hills. The rising trend of concentration of people belonging to the same tribe, religion or languages in a particular area indicates a sense of fear and apprehension.

While on the one hand emergence of tribal autonomy as a distinctive policy of the Assam Government have greatly reduced the mischief potential of the destabilizing agencies in their disruptive operations, on the other the renewed extremism in collaboration with its new found ally in trans-border fundamentalists and their pockets of influence within the state is cause for concern. Reports reveal of ISI designs to link up the extremists with the fanatics. The ominous potential of a revival of misguided belligerence is not unlikely to be exploited in ethnic strife. The Hmar-Kuki strife is a pointer in that direction.

Gogoi has reiterated that his Government is committed to implement the Accord clause by clause within a stipulated timeframe. A separate directorate for updating the 1951 National Register of Citizens with March 25, 1971, as the cut-off year has been constituted and the entire process as Gogoi claimed would be completed within two years. Of course, at the ground level, the effectiveness of the entire process would depend ultimately on the way in which the State Government, the Centre and the AASU choose to play their assigned part. The transnational migration continues to be a sensitive and crucial issue that strikes at the very basis of the country’s polity. It would benefit none to keep major policies vis-à-vis detection and deportation of post 1971 migrants only half-resolved given the genuine apprehensions of the state’s indigenous population about the illegal influx from across the border.

Emerging politically stronger

Politically Gogoi has emerged stronger. He has effectively quelled dissidence in the party. It is his perseverance and survival instinct that has helped him turn the tables on his political detractors. 

Gogoi has better equations with Central leaders than his predecessor. He has succeeded in getting several long-standing projects cleared from the Centre. The Rs 5,460 crore mega Gas Cracker Project at Lepetkata in Dibrugarh district is on full swing. Assam’s economy will certainly have a new buoyant look given the scope and limits of the downstream industries that will follow the mother plant.

It is significant that companies like ONGC found it possible to talk of investments ranging around Rs 2,000 crore. Even Asian Development Bank and the World Bank have come in a big way to fund several ambitious projects. While ADB has funded two major projects - one for power sector reforms worth US $ 250 million and the other the Assam Governance and Public Resource Management Programme worth Rs 1012 crore - the World Bank has funded the Rs 1024.53 crore Assam Agricultural Competitiveness Project. Eight years ago, this would have been unthinkable.

Economy looks up

Assam’s economy too, is looking up. When the Government took over, it inherited a whopping burden of Rs 2000 crore. Its task was cut out. Increased plan outlays, including the Government’s sincere endeavours to improve its finances and mobilise additional resources, have helped the state’s drive to progress. The total revenue collection has gone up from Rs 1,270.33 crore in 2001-02 to Rs 2,894.37 crore in 2007-08. The overdraft position with RBI has come to zero from a staggering Rs 2,000 crore. The annual plan outlay has gone up from Rs 1,520 crore in 2000-01 (during AGP’s regime) to Rs 5,011 crore in 2008-09. The per capita income growth in the state has registered an increase from Rs 10,718 in 2000-01 (during AGP’s tenure) to Rs 22,081 in 2007-08.

But all these positive gains may ultimately prove elusive if the seeds of youth unrest are not wiped out. About 2 million youth are without any job. And they must be involved in productive jobs.

In any case, the most predictable feature about Assam’s politics in the near future is that Gogoi will continue to be its focus. This is due as much to the nature of the state’s problems as to his magnetic personality.