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The Sustained Resurgence of Insurgencies in India’s Northeast
The waning popular support behind these armed campaigns appears to have marginal impact on their longevity, which appears to have been boosted enormously by a range of external support, networking among the outfits and also propelled by the sheer desire to continue. On the contrary, India’s counter-insurgency effort in the region, apart from few exceptions, has been a failure. Its political approach has been adhocish and directionless. While the small and peripheral insurgencies, with limited aims and objectives have tended to perish within few years of their formation, the bigger and potent formations have continued to wage their battle. The continuation of these larger armed formations, in turn, has inspired the regular propping of smaller outfits, contributing to the cycle of chaos and violence in this region.
Security forces and analysts, for good reasons, believe that the insurgency movements, over the years, have been corrupted and no longer represent the aspirations of the masses. A clear divide has come to exist between the ordinary people and the gun-toting militants and more often than not, it is the civilians who have been targeted by the insurgent cadres. However, defying prophecies of doom the insurgent outfits have bounced back. The trend of degeneration notwithstanding, the insurgent outfits continue to retain significant level of nuisance value, sufficient to keep the northeast on the boil.
India’s military response in the Northeast
Robert Taber says in his famous work on guerrilla warfare, “It is not in the nature of governments to treat with armed civilians, the insurrection must be put down, order established, and confidence restored.” The rise of the armed rebellions with an exclusive agenda of sovereignty did invite military response from India. Emerging from the British control, the national leaders were in little mood to allow the disintegration of the country, let alone allow armed separatists to hold parts of the country to ransom. The violence let loose by these insurgents targeting symbols of the Indian state was met with policies that let the army march into the northeast with an objective of ending these insurrections with force. With the state police force highly incapable to meet the challenges posed by the insurgents, the army contingents led the counter-insurgency campaign in the northeast.
Use of maximum force never pays, strategic use of force does. However, the immediate and continued preference of military methods over other techniques to deal with insurgencies in the northeast originated from the relative success this method has had in reducing the nuisance value of the outfits. For example, in the early 1980s, few years after the controversial Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) was introduced in Manipur, a series of army operations led to the arrest of chief of Manipuri insurgent outfit PLA, Bisheswar Singh and the subsequent killing of several first and second rank leaders were killed in encounters.” It led to a weakening of the outfit, albeit momentarily. Operation Bajrang and Rhino by the Indian military, in the early 1990s, forced the ULFA, which was running a parallel government in Assam, to seek refuge in Bangladesh. Army operations is said to have driven the NSCN-IM to agree for a ceasefire agreement with New Delhi in 1997. Again in 2003, military operations by the Bhutanese army supported by India led to the dismantling of the camps of the ULFA, the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) and the Kamtapur Liberation Organisation (KLO) in that country. While the KLO and the NDFB received serious operational setbacks as a result, the ULFA lost many of its senior and middle rung cadres.
Analysts have pointed at the structural breakdown of the Indian state in the northeast and the absence of a true federal spirit of the Indian constitution as factors that continue to promote insurgencies. Such administrative breakdown, however, is certainly not unique in the northeast and is true for most of the backward regions of the country. The reason, on the other hand, for the evolution and continuations of these armed movements, is be located in the strategic and operational failure of the counter-insurgency campaigns. In addition to the Indian state’s inability to ensure an end to the foreign support to these insurgents, the state failure at resolving conflicts have led to a culture of violence, that promotes and nurtures such mushrooming of insurgencies.
(i) Counter-insurgency strategy
It is ironic that till the Bodo rebels of the Bodo Liberation Tigers (BLT) gave up violence to settle for the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) in 2003, the Mizo experience could never be repeated to end any of the protracted insurgencies in the region.
Analysts point out that a successful counter-terrorism strategy should include four core elements: reducing the systemic causes, deterring terrorists and their sponsors, reducing the risk of super-terrorism and retaliating where deterrence fails. The reason why the might of the Indian army and para-military forces has failed to suppress the little rebellions in the northeast is to do with the across the board failure in implementing a majority of these requirements. The analysis would specifically deal with the operational lacunae of the counter-insurgency campaigns.
Robert Taber noting the disadvantages of the security forces vis-à-vis the advantages enjoyed by the insurgents notes, “On the military level, a regular army, under whatever political system, has disadvantages that are owing to its very size and the complexity of the organisation, and again to its defensive role, as the guardian of the national wealth and of the whole of the national territory. The guerrilla, for his part, finds his strength in his freedom from territorial commitments, his mobility and his relationships to a discontented people, as the spokesman of their grievances, the armed vanguard, as Che Guevara puts it, of militant social protest.” The security forces in the northeast have been and continue to be pitted against such challenges.
Moreover, the lack of coordination between the army, the para-military and the police, each of them engaged in counter-insurgency operations created additional problem. Operations were marked by an absence of sharing of information and more critically one-upmanship. To avoid these difficulties, a unified command structure (UCS) was set up in Assam in 1997 and followed by a similar one in Manipur in 2004. However, the UCS has not been able to smoothen out the difficulties of coordination between the forces. For example, in Assam the UCS was initially headed by the Army, which had a demoralising effect on the state police which did not want to work second fiddle to the central forces. Even after the Chief Minister started heading the UCS in 2007, the Army was being accused of unilateral actions and keeping the police in dark. In Manipur, serious difference of opinion emerged between the police and army, with the former in favour of repealing the controversial AFSPA and the latter opposing it. As David Galula notes, “Its not enough for the counterinsurgent leaders to be resolute; they must also be aware of the strategy and tactics required in fighting an insurgency.” The lack of operational coordination among the forces led to periodic breakdown of the organisational cohesion leading to haphazard operations that yielded very little.
The security forces have tried to overcome the difficulty of absence of flow of information from the people about the insurgents by co-opting the surrendered militants. While on occasions the latter have indeed found to be critical in terms of providing information about their erstwhile comrades, in states like Assam, the lack of control on such renegades have created a band of malcontents. The surrendered ULFA or the SULFA, for its rampant involvement in secret killings, extortions and active involvement in a regime of lawlessness, for long remained an anathema in the counter-insurgency campaign in Assam. The ULFA, on the other hand, received significant popular sympathy as the SULFA cadres let loose a reign of terror.
These ceasefire or suspension of operation arrangements, which have been described as mere attempts at procrastinating peace by many, has been exploited by the militants to carry out sustained extortion, abduction and killing campaigns. This has been a feature in almost all the states of the region where the outfits have been under such agreements. The NSCN-IM in Nagaland has not only increased its cadre strength to more than 2500 from a mere 1500 in the last 12 years of ceasefire, it has abducted and extorted with impunity. Ceasefire with both the NSCN-IM and the NSCN-K has brought little relief to the state as both factions have engaged in bitter fratricidal clashes with each other. Other outfits such as the NDFB, Dima Halim Daogah (DHD) and United People’s Democratic Solidarity (UPDS) in Assam and Achik National Volunteers Council (ANVC) in Meghalaya have been accused by the respective state governments of repeated violations of the ceasefire ground rules.
From an operational level, the counter-insurgency strategy has also failed to effect a generational change in the armed outfits, with a bid to expose the ideology and objective of these formations to the wisdom of a new set of leadership. It needs emphasis that all the intractable insurgencies in the Northeast continue to be led by the same set of leadership which found them. ULFA, since its 1979 formation is led by its commander-in-chief Paresh Baruah and chairman Arabainda Rajkhowa. Since the infamous and violent split in the NSCN in 1988, the IM faction of the NSCN is led by General Secretary Thuingaleng Muivah and Chairman Isak Chisi Swu and the NSCN-Khaplang is led by its chief S S Khaplang. The major Manipuri outfits like the PLA and UNLF have not undergone much of leadership change. As a result, the commitment of the old leadership to the original objective of the outfit possibly remains unwavering and essentially not open to compromises. On the other hand, attempts at effecting a generational change by the security forces, through covert operations targeted at eliminating these top leaders or by way of creating splits within organisations have not been very effective. The handful of successes in this regard was the rise of factionalism within the NLFT which broke into small groups led by leaders such as Nayanbashi Jamatiya and Joshua Debbarma. Eventually, these groups opted for ceasefire leaving the NLFT faction led by its original leaders to remain committed to an armed struggle. Similarly, in July 2008, the ULFA’s potent 28th battalion underwent a split after two of its companies broke away to start negotiations with the government, much to the chagrin of the outfit’s top leadership in Bangladesh. Such ‘successes’, however, have provided only temporary relief, only till the time the outfits recruit and let loose a fresh gang of cadres.
(ii) Political Patronage
Such patronage, often based on ethnicity, kinship and sometimes on pure fear factor, also existed between the administration including the state police forces and the insurgents. It not only ensured the steady trickling of government funds to the coffers of the outfits, but also translated into strategic leakages of information regarding impending security force raids on insurgent camps. During Operation Bajrang in Assam, launched in November 1990, the army’s ‘surprise raids’ achieved little as the ULFA militants were always notified in advance of such decisions, allegedly by the state police personnel. In one such instance, a huge army contingent reached the ULFA headquarters at Lakhipathar only to find that the insurgents had abandoned it much earlier. Sanjoy Hazarika writes, “The intelligence leak was at a high level for the information about the army assault was known only to a handful of officials in the Home Ministry and the army command.”
Sympathy for the boys has also led to early termination of vital military operations in Assam. On a number of occasions, the army has managed to corner ULFA senior functionaries in strategic locations. However, sudden political decisions have led to a loosening of the hold allowing the insurgents to escape. This has been a constant source of irritation for the army.
Similarly, in Manipur, the insurgent outfits managed to penetrate the state and central administration and carved out specific areas of influence. “Every month when salaries are disbursed, a percentage is deducted and paid to the militant groups. ..The militant groups reportedly interfere in the award of contracts and are also known to enter offices carrying files to secure signatures of officers at gunpoint.” This is a continuing phenomenon in Manipur. Not long ago that the chief minister of the state Okram Ibobi Singh was accused by the army chief of contributing to the coffers of two insurgent outfits. Such dominance has also translated into interference of the insurgents in the polling process. Regular ransom demands by several outfits have forced a number of local politicians from Manipur to shift to the safety of neighbouring Silchar in Assam. ULFA’s strategic weakness in Assam has not deterred the outfit from attempting to influence the political outcome in various constituencies. Such domination has been more pronounced in smaller and remote districts, where even the fringe outfits have not only generated large amount of resources from political parties, but also have fielded candidates of their choice. At least two members of the state legislative assembly in Assam today are former ULFA cadres.
It is important to note wherever political patronage has disappeared; the insurgents have quickly been stripped of their notoriety and have been exposed to the counter-insurgency measures. The political sanction behind the police operations in Tripura was a crucial factor behind the speedy neutralisation of militancy in that state. It is a pity that such developments and sudden desire to cut the umbilical ties with the insurgents have not been repeated in many theatres.
(iii) Opinion Management:
However, in spite of the fact that most of the insurgents in the northeast, do not inhabit the civilian areas, people’s power remain one of their critical sources of sustenance. In Manipur’s “valley and hills, while the common people look to the government for succour, there is a half educated crust which has become increasingly anti-national and blame the Union government for all the ills.” Thus, the continuous failure of the official measure at establishing peace needs also to be seen in the context of the ability of the insurgencies to garner popular support. This, to a significant measure, has been achieved through the civil society organisations and the front organisations set up by the outfits from time to time.
The Manab Adhikar Sangram Samiti (MASS) in Assam and the Naga People’s Movement for Human Rights (NPMHR) in Nagaland are examples of such organisations which have constantly managed to generate public opinion in favour of the insurgents. Similarly, groups like the Committee on Human Rights (COHR) and Human Rights Alert in Manipur are outfits that are in the forefront of protecting human rights of people from abuses by security force personnel and maintain a stoic silence when it comes to dealing with the excesses of the insurgents. The ULFA in 2005 even set up the People’s Consultative Group (PCG) consisting of 11 persons to prepare the ground-work for the eventual initiation of talks with the Union Government. The PCG not only held two rounds of dialogue with the government, but also generated tremendous popular opinion in favour of a dialogue on Assam’s sovereignty, which is a key ULFA demand. Subsequently, two members of the PCG were arrested for their nexus with the outfit.
Official efforts at generating sanction of people behind its actions do not match the rather successful exploitation of popular sympathy by the insurgents. Barring few cases such as Tripura where the counter-insurgency grid managed to wean away the insurgent sympathisers, the schism between the government and the people has not simply been bridged. Episodes like the killing of Manorama Devi have further fuelled popular alienation.
Development as a solution?
The longevity of the insurgency movements creates a sense of their intractability. The failure of the visionless and strategically poor military efforts has been seen as the worthlessness of using force against rebellions that challenge the concept of India. Such realisations have led to formation of policies that believe massive developmental investment will eliminate the sources of popular discontent and return the rebels to the ambit of democracy.
Apart from the fact that the concerned the states simply do not have the capacity to absorb the financial largesse that has bestowed on them either through the mandatory ten percent reservation of funds of all ministries for the region or in form of announcement during the periodic visits of the Prime Minister, “no empirical studies demonstrating any causal linkages between specific and consistent parameters of underdevelopment, exploitation or injustice, on the one hand, and the emergence and persistence specifically of terrorism on the other, are available.”
As pointed out earlier, in “the climate of collapse”, much of these funds have either turned into phantom aids, finding its way to the Indian mainland through a curious channel of bureaucrats and contractors or a large chunk of its has simply vanished into the coffers of the insurgent outfits. It is important to note the statement of the Chief Minister of Manipur describing the extent on insurgent dominance on his State. Speaking at a public meeting in Thoubal District on April 23, 2006, for instance, Singh confessed, “All development projects have been stalled for interference by militant outfits. The construction of a flyover in Imphal is delayed because the militant outfits are demanding a certain percentage of the project fund. The construction of the Assembly complex has also been similarly stalled. Militants are extorting money from each and every one, including barbers, small-time traders and low-ranking Government employees. This has become unbearable for the people. Militant groups have sprung up as cooperative societies in Manipur.”
This state of affairs, however, has not deterred the specialists opining in favour of continuing the development paradigm not only through the massive injection of funds but also by unveiling the proposed look-east policy by linking up the northeast with its South-east Asian neighbourhood. Such policies, invariably, are based on the falsified presumption that forces of development can overshadow the insurgencies. Experts, however, suggest alternatives. In the context of Manipur, a former Police official wrote, “Development schemes should be taken up with a view to open up employment in the private sector. The unemployed educated and dropouts are the main source of recruitment for militant groups. Thus, this section should be targeted in all development projects.”
Managing without grand mantras
In the Indian context, counter-insurgency is essentially a function of the state police. The police, compared to the army or the para-military enjoys inherent advantages of knowledge of local conditions and psyche, so essential for dealing with the rebels. Police-led counter-insurgency operations were a critical factor in the elimination of militancy in the Indian state of Punjab in the early 1990s. Within the north-eastern region, the state of Tripura, which was ravaged by a Bangladesh-aided tribal insurgency for over one-and-a-half decades, benefited immensely from an official policy that not only better equipped its police force, but also made policing available to the population in the most inaccessible of places. Police-led responses have also been critical to successes against the left-wing extremists in Andhra Pradesh. Even where central forces remain pivotal to the counter-insurgency effort, as in Jammu & Kashmir, the police have come to play an increasing role in counter-insurgency.
The fact that a successful counter-insurgency strategy is not based on grand ideas, but implementation of simple principles of policing, was proven beyond doubt from the recent execution of a high-successful policy in Tripura. A radical reorganisation of the state’s police force left the entrenched militant groups in disarray. Building on a model of a police-led response to terrorism, Tripura’s police has managed to reverse the trajectory of insurgent violence and, crucially, mobilisation. As an assessment of the counter-insurgency strategy noted,
“The core of the police strategy of response is to dominate the most remote areas in the State, and to minimize the reaction time for counter-insurgent operations. There has also been a dramatic augmentation of the Police intelligence network. The improved geographical dominance of the Forces has resulted in increasing flows of information from the general public, who have long borne the brunt of militant excesses, but had been too terrorized to extend cooperation to the Police in the past. Improved geographical dominance has also cut the lifelines of militant survival in terms of finance. The cumulative impact of these initiatives and operations has drastically affected militant morale.
The replication of such a strategy is possible in other theatres. However, such endeavours would need dramatic undoing of the existing problem areas. Writing on the availability of arms with the police in the northeast in 2001, the Union Home Ministry said, “The condition of police forces in the North Eastern States is quite poor. Many of the militant groups have far more modern arms and equipment than the State Police.” There is little evidence of any dramatic transformation in the circumstances since this observation was made.
For example, six years after the observation was made by the MHA, the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) said that police modernisation programme in Assam appears to have led to a scenario in which the police personnel have sophisticated AK series rifles, but no bullets to load them with. The CAG report for 2007-08 indicated that the 2000 AK-47 rifles supplied by the Ministry of Home Affairs at a cost of Rupees 1.60 crore in 2004-05 did not come with bullets and state police department’s delayed effort at procuring bullets did not materialise till March 2008. The near absence of police participation in counter-insurgency measures in other states of the region has created enormous problems for the Army and the para-military. Not that these forces, much in demand in all sorts of conceivable law and order and terrorism problems all over the country appear to be permanently stationed in specific parts, but the perennial dependence of the state governments on these forces do not lead to the augmentation of police force’s capacity to deal with insurgencies on their own.
This is true both in case of the conflict-ridden Manipur as well as Nagaland. The counter-insurgency operations in Manipur have been led by the army and para-military. Ever since the army was introduced into the valley areas of the state in late 1970s citing rampant militant activities, the central forces have been the vanguard of anti-insurgency operations, with the police playing no or little role in dealing with the insurgents. In Nagaland where both the primary insurgent groups are under separate ceasefire agreements with the Indian government, the police simply does not display any attempt to rein in the insurgents. Even though the police department is the biggest government department in the state, its personnel have not even deployed rationally, either in terms of the security requirements or the distribution of population across various districts and police jurisdictions.
Even when the army has managed to clear off the militants from their liberated zones, the incapacity of the police in establishing a hold over the area and make way for the establishment of civilian administration has brought about quick reversals in the gains made. This is a recurrent feature in Manipur’s Chandel area, where numerous army operations have not been successful in dislodging the UNLF militants from the Sajik Tampak and New Samtal areas.
End game
Northeast’s woes stem as much from the deep sense of alienation among the people of the region which has served as a constant feeder for the insurgents as the legacy of half-baked and visionless policies to address such estrangement. Years of haphazard swinging between military operations to unprincipled collusions and peace negotiations and further to developmental approaches notwithstanding, the Indian state remains as clueless about the insurgencies of the region as it was decades back. While none would like to repeat the military means that led to the resolution of the conflict in Mizoram, there appears to be little appreciation of the counter-insurgency efforts in Tripura. Whether it is about border management or dealing with foreign support to the insurgents, there is a clear and unmistakable element of apathy in New Delhi’s approach towards the state of affairs in the northeast. This sense of detachment and disinterest by the Indian policy makers, consequently, would keep the lamp of insurgency burning in that remote corner of the country, for years to come.
[Dr. Bibhu Prasad Routray is Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management , New Delhi.]