Yet, no one can deny that these elections have been fascinating in their own way and offer a lot in terms of sheer education value to their counterparts in mainland India.

Three states, Nagaland, Tripura and Meghalaya went to the polls in February and March to elect their respective state legislative assemblies. Among these, Nagaland was an interesting theatre of political battle due to a variety of factors. Just two months before the March first week polls, the Nephiu Rio-led Democratic Alliance of Nagaland (DAN) had been dismissed by the Central government for orchestrating a survival act in the assembly after losing majority. Many analysts had questioned the political acumen behind such a move, taken apparently at the behest of the Nagaland state unit of the Congress Party.   The move not only served a ready made issue to go to the people with DAN on a platter, it also demonised New Delhi as an entity that is out to superimpose its authority on ‘independence seeking Nagaland’. The move, none the less, was a challenge thrown on the former Chief Minister to attempt a come back on a ‘murder of democracy’ plank. For the Congress Party that had been dislodged from power in the 2003 elections, the election was another chance to revive its lost glory. Moreover, the election was also a sort of ‘Gallup poll’ on one of the most crucial issues that has dominated the state’s politics for the past decade, i.e. the direction of the peace process between New Delhi and the insurgent outfit under cease-fire, the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM).

The poll results revealed that the decision to impose President’s rule in the state backfired on the prospects of Congress Party in Nagaland. The decision appeared to have eclipsed the memories of the DAN government’s largely non-performing existence with a single stroke. The Nagaland People’s Front (NPF) - led DAN coalition cobbled up a strength of 34 in the 60 member house, compared to the Congress which managed 23 seats. Following a failed attempt at putting together a coalition government by the Congress Party, the DAN government was sworn in.

More than the political outcome, Rio’s return sent an important note to the Union Government on the direction of the Naga peace talks. The polls reflected a popular discontent over the achievement of the protracted peace process, which has continued in the background of unceasing and seemingly uncontrollable internecine clashes between insurgent factions. There appears to be little if any unanimity among the two sides in the peace process, in spite of the supposed climb down of the NSCN-IM from the demand for complete independence to a ‘federal agreement’ with the Government of India. Confusion abounds among the top political leadership in New Delhi too. While Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, addressing an electoral rally in Nagaland had expressed his willingness to ‘walk an extra-mile’ to achieve peace in the state, the Congress chairperson Sonia Gandhi, a few days later had spoken of the already existing ‘space within the constitution to resolve the conflict”, thus annoying the NSCN-IM which charged New Delhi of dishonesty.

Rio’s return to the helm of power, however, is not expected to significantly alter the course of the Naga peace process. In spite of his assertions regarding taking the process forward, the DAN government’s role in the past years has been that of a silent observer and it is highly unlikely that it would be allowed to play any greater role by both the negotiating parties in the coming years.

Tripura’s electoral verdict in favour of the Left-front was a foregone conclusion. The Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) and its allies secured 49 seats, eight more than the previous election. On March 10, Manik Sarkar created a record in the political history of the State, having been sworn in  as Chief Minister for the third consecutive term. For the Left-front, this is the fourth consecutive term in Tripura. The Congress and the Indigenous Nationalist Party of Tripura (INPT) alliance could manage only 11 seats, eight seats less than the earlier poll in 2003. Manik Sarkar’s corruption-free, accountable and clean administration defied the anti-incumbency factor in successive elections, despite the attempts of the beleaguered Congress.

Unlike Nagaland, Tripura will continue to reap benefits from the return of the Left-front to seat of power. Till about six years back, tribal insurgency at the behest of the National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) and the All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF) in the state was the most rampant. A largely police-led response to tribal insurgency, unveiled and supported by the state government, has been able to reverse the ascending graph of conflict in Tripura. This state has emerged as a success story in counter-insurgency campaign. Compared to 296 fatalities in 394 insurgency related incidents in 2003, the year 2007 recorded (till November 30) 38 fatalities in 86 incidents. In fact, only 60 and 50 fatalities were recorded in 2005 and 2006 respectively. Insurgents have lost significant popular support within the state and are engaged in intermittent hit and run attacks within the state, launched from their bases within neighbouring Bangladesh.

While the March 8 counting process settled the fortunes of the political parties in Nagaland and Tripura, fractured mandate given by the voters in Meghalaya kept politicking alive over subsequent days. In fact, by March 19, the state had witnessed two governments, one hoisted after the fall of another.

The Congress Party whose fortune hit rock bottom in Tripura and Nagaland, performed relatively well in Meghalaya. Led by former Chief Minister D D Lapang, it emerged as the largest single party with 25 seats. Governor S S Sidhu invited the party to form the government, ignoring the claims of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) - led Meghalaya Progressive Alliance (MPA) which paraded 31 newly elected members in front of the Governor. A Raj Bhawan communiqué said that since the MPA is a post-poll alliance, inviting it would encourage horse trading. Appeal by the NCP leader and former Lok Sabha speaker P A Sangma was set aside by the Supreme Court.

Apart from the political decision of the Governor, it was a bit of a surprise for the Congress Party to lay claim to the seat of power in spite of its minority status. However, there was an apparent method to the desperation of the Congress Party to secure some lost ground in Meghalaya, following its consecutive defeats in a number of state legislative assembly elections in the Indian heartland in 2007. The debacle suffered in Tripura and Nagaland simply added to its woes and had in all probability forced the party to devise ways to restore some amount of honour in Meghalaya, even for a short while. And it remained a very short experience, during which the Party could do little to muster up a majority.

The Lapang government lasted for a little more than a week and resigned on March 19, the day on which it was to demonstrate its majority in the state assembly. The MPA leader Donkupar Roy was named the Chief Minister commanding a wafer thin majority in the 60 member house. The future of political stability in Meghalaya is, however, vague. It is clear from the statements of the Congress leaders who have indicated that the heralding of the MPA government is certainly not the end of the road for them. It can thus be safely presumed that Meghalaya which in the late 1990s had witnessed frequent change of chief ministers is back to an era of political uncertainty.

The formation of the non-Congress governments in all the three states has been viewed as the successful reappearance of regionalism in the northeast. However, in spite of the debacle in Nagaland and Tripura and the loss of opportunity in Meghalaya for the Congress Party, it would be misleading to term the popular verdict in such a manner. Although it was inevitable that the issues on which political parties sought support from the voters remained local, the verdict indicated a popular yearning for the fulfillment of basic needs. It did not really seem to matter who remains at the helm of affairs, a local or a national mainstream party. It however, was a lesson for the national parties. For them northeast remains a different playing field as far as taking their fortunes for granted.

Bibhu Prasad Routray