During deliberations, the ULFA leaders, according to sources, told the Prime Minister that they have come forward for talks bowing to the wishes of the common people as people want a negotiated settlement. “Assam’s identity is under grave threat and the present system of governance in Assam is responsible for this,” one of the leaders apparently told the Prime Minister; stressing on necessary constitutional amendments. On his part, Dr Singh listened patiently and appreciated the gesture of the ULFA leaders in coming forward for talks.

During the meeting, ULFA Chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa thanked the Prime Minister for his personal interest in resolving the conflict by stressing on the ‘flexibility’ part of the Indian Constitution. Later interacting with a select group of journalists and a few colleagues, he also stressed that the government has expressed utmost sincerity to resolve the conflict after bringing changes in the statute book. “We propose to evaluate various facets of the Constitution of India and to explore the viability of protection and enrichment of the sovereignty of the people of Assam in all its dimensions – political, social, economic and cultural within the flexibility in the Constitution,” Rajkhowa said.

For a long time now, as a determinant of politics in Assam, ULFA is truly a shadow in the corridors of power having sided with both the major political parties the AGP and the Congress.

An obvious question pressing everyone’s mind is the timing of the talks vis-à-vis the forthcoming Assembly elections in Assam which are due shortly. The hint is that the peace talks would probably influence the ensuing Assembly elections too; more so – in favour of Congress because ULFA has conceded to the Congress governments in the state and in the Centre and agreed to unconditional talks. It is in this backdrop that the book ‘The Talking Guns: North East India’ penned by a journalist and published in 2008 (Manas Publications) made assertions that: “More than so-called people’s mandate, several northeast watchers believe that Congress could oust AGP in May 2001 polls only because ULFA had decided against Mahanta’s rule — which ironically was largely overshadowed if not remote controlled from Raj Bhawan by the then dominant Governor Lt Governor S K Sinha with the blessing of NDA’s Union Home Ministry”.

Looking back, in 2009 itself, a key ULFA leader Mrinal Hazarika had maintained that “No party in Assam can claim that it had not won election without the support of ULFA.”

The outfit’s ‘alleged defection’ from the regional camp of AGP in the run-up to the Assembly polls in 2001 and 2006 to the Congress and the national party winning elections convincingly make the case only more murkier. The complexity of the entire ULFA-politico nexus is hardly understood properly by the bureaucracy-driven Union Home Ministry. Observers say it has also become evident with time that Congress kept the issue of talks only as a trump card to win election after election using the ULFA issue and support. Therefore, it is not without good reason that the Tarun Gogoi-led dispensation is now all confident about repeating Sheila Dikshit feat. If he manages the victory in the coming elections, Gogoi’s political stake would go up as he would be the second Congressman to attain that feat after the Delhi Chief Minister.

The North East watchers say that in 1996, ULFA as well as the people of Assam needed a change from the bloody five years of Congress Rule, a period known only for bloodshed, terror of Army operations, indiscriminate arrest of Assamese youth, rapes, etc. With ULFA openly supporting AGP and the media attacking the Congress, AGP got a second chance to rule Assam. But history only repeated itself with the Prafulla Mahanta government drawing out an elaborate mechanism in conjunction with the army to wipe out ULFA.

The AGP government supported and aided by the BJP-led regime in New Delhi convinced the Bhutan government to allow crackdown against the ULFA cadre taking shelter in Bhutan. This diplomatic coup by the Vajpayee government in effect broke the spinal cord of ULFA as the joint crackdown was undertaken by forces from both the countries in Bhutan from December 15, 2003. According to intelligence sources in Delhi, ULFA central headquarters (CHQ), seven of its camps and the Central Training Institute at Deothang and 709 Battalion HQ at Kalikhola were all in Bhutan. At least 4000 ULFA activists were in the eastern and southeastern parts of Bhutan. Thus, in 2001, the time was ripe for the Congress-led by Tarun Gogoi, the state Chief Minister since then, to work out a formula to win support from ULFA. This ultimately proved helpful as the Congress largely took up the fight on behalf of ULFA against the Mahanta regime and a hyper-active Governor of the time Lt Gen (Retd) S K Sinha.

“ULFA’s influence was evident in 2001 and 2006. Right from selection of candidates, attacks on pool booths, grenade blasts in Janata Bhawan in Guwahati, ULFA did it all ultimately to bring Congress to power,” says an intelligence source. So, does this mean that the Congress under Tarun Gogoi, once an underestimated Congressman in Assam, would storm back to power for the third term in a row?

ULFA – incidentally both pro-talk and anti-talk factions – have clarified that the outfit in no way wants to favour (help) Congress during the forthcoming Assembly elections. “It would be wrong to presume that ULFA agreed to the talks just to help Congress in the elections,” says ULFA Vice Chairman Pradip Gogoi. Similarly, Paresh Baruah, ULFA’s fugitive Commander-in-Chief, who has rejected talks so far, has also appealed to the Assamese population not to vote for Congress. On its part, the pro-talk group led by Rajkhowa has also clarified that the outfit will have “zero involvement” in the ensuing elections.

Initial Deadlock:

The parleys have begun but it has already hit an initial roadblock. In formal talks with Home Secretary, G K Pillai, ULFA has rejected any move to make the ‘Assam Accord’ signed in 1985 by the Rajiv Gandhi government the basis for talks. “The people of Assam desire peace, but with dignity and honour. We can not make any compromise on that. Assam Accord is not acceptable as a talking point,” ULFA negotiators reportedly told Pillai.

Officials later admitted on the condition of anonymity that the Home Ministry mandarins and even interlocutor, P C Haldar, a former IB chief are finding it difficult to draw a clear roadmap – that is the agenda for talks. This is the most difficult part before ULFA and the government. Like the talks with Naga rebels NSCN (IM), with ULFA too, there is no clear cut agenda, officials admit. However, Haldar has sought to make light of the issue and said that the seven-member committee comprising 2 officials each from the Centre and Assam government and three from ULFA would thrash out the differences. “There are enough talking points. The important part is that they have agreed for negotiated settlement,” clarified former Assam Governor Bhisma Narain Singh in a discussion programme in All India Radio.

The very rejection of the Assam Accord to be the basis for the talks makes it clear that ULFA might not agree to 1971 as the cut off year for identifying and deportation of foreign nationals, especially from Bangladesh. Besides this vexed issue, ULFA is expected to bring on to the table a few other issues like border sealing along Bangladesh and a few developmental projects like Gas Cracker plant.

ULFA leaders hope that the government would concede to guaranteeing certain special provisions to Assam in the lines of special constitutional protection to Jammu and Kashmir and even to a large extent in Nagaland. “We want utmost stress on the true federal structure of the Constitution. This has to be worked out. Ethnic reconciliation is needed in Assam and that can be ensured only though genuine constitutional mechanism,” ULFA Vice Chairman Pradip Gogoi told Eastern Panorama.

Now, on the key issue of sovereignty as ULFA has seemingly made a ‘climb down’, it must be understood that such a stance has not emerged out of a change of heart among the pro-talk ULFA leaders, especially Chairman Rajkhowa. The nosedive climb down on their part is chiefly due to the “compulsion” they face today having cornered badly following arrests of most of its key leaders and annihilation of hundreds of foot soldiers. However, notwithstanding the complexity of the situation he has landed in, Rajkhowa often takes a considerably tough line. “We will not compromise on the core issue that is the dignity and honour of Assam,” he remarked. Thus it can be surmised that the peace process should be taken with a ‘pinch of salt’ and a more cautious roadmap should be charted out. The outfit – given Paresh Baruah’s anti-talk faction, still has enough resilient power and resources to bounce back.

As a political challenge, ULFA remains to be defeated though as a military uprising it has suffered a huge set back. Notably, ULFA leaders are like the prodigal sons – now advocating peace – and even interacting with Assamese students at YMCA in Delhi, Rajkhowa and his other colleagues stressed, “Do not ever pick up guns. You should never take the path we had adopted.” Far from transforming Assam into an ideal modern state, ULFA had brought in only agony for their beloved ‘Aai (Motherland) Asom’. The state is seriously afflicted with serious corruption and unaccountability remains the hallmark. The face of Assam administration is still governed by the good old saying, “Assam khale minister-e ……”

These are permanent factors those could rekindle the anguish of the Assamese youth against New Delhi, the state government and civil society. ULFA had surfaced and stolen the limelight in 1990s in the absence of effective governance, so could Paresh Barua’s boys or any new outfit in the near future.