The emergence of AUDF added a new dimension to the political scenario when as a debutante in the elections, it wrested the Katigorah seat from BJP, Badarpur and Hailakandi seats from Congress and sent the message that it was all set to redefine the political fortune of Assam. In its kitty went in all 10 seats to match the tally of BJP in the last polls. Congress however retained the top slot with 53 seats. Quite significantly, Algapur is the only constituency which remains a stronghold of AGP from where Sahidul Alam Chowdhury, former minister and a close confidant of P K Mahanta, had been winning since 1985 only to lose to Rahul Roy of Congress. Other parties in the fray with little stake are SP, Trinamul Congress, CPIM, CPI, CPI(ML), SUCI, Forward Block and a host of independents.
Congress, BJP, AGP and AUDF are contesting all the seats without any adjustment or alliance, perhaps as a strategy. Post poll alliance seems to be the option since from all indications; no party is going to gain a majority to form the government on its own strength. AUDF General Secretary, Ataur Rahman Majharbhuiya and MLA of Katigorah made it clear that his party would maintain equidistant from both Congress and BJP. What queers the pitch for Congress and BJP are the open revolts by aggrieved leaders and their supporters against alleged ‘unfair selection of candidates’. Rebels contesting as independents or on AUDF tickets are likely to adversely affect the poll outcome of the national parties.
Arti Mehra, National Secretary of BJP, played down the dissension as natural in democracy and drew the Bihar instance to hammer out the ultimate unity for spectacular performance at the hustings. The Congress leadership has much to worry about as three of its influential former ministers, Abdul Muqtadir Chowdhury, Abu Saleh Nazamuddin and Misbahul Islam Laskar, also Chairman of minority cell, on being denied nominations, are contesting as AUDF and independent candidates from North Karimganj, Badarpur and Borkhola. This has no doubt bolstered the strength of AUDF, sending ripples in the poll spectrum.
In order to harangue Congress, the opposition has all the fodder to feed their cannons. BJP heralded its campaign with a string of star campaigners who included Nitin Gadkari, party high command, Varun Gandhi, General Secretary and observer for Assam, and Smriti Irani, Mahila Morcha President, besides state leaders Bijoya Chakravorty, Sarbananda Sonowal who recently joined the saffron party after deserting AGP. All of these have slammed the UPA Government for colossal scams such as those involving the Common Wealth Games, 2 G Spectrum, Adarsh Housing as well as the controversial appointment of the CVC chief, unaccounted money stashed away in foreign banks, all round unbridled corruption in public life, unchecked inflation and the bogey of ‘saffron terrorism’.
On state and local issues, BJP, AGP and AUDF went hammer and tongue against the Tarun Gogoi led Government for the multi crore scam in the North Cachar Hills, poor infrastructural development of the valley, the pitiful shape of urban and rural roads, highways, delayed national projects of Silchar-Lumding BG and East-West Corridor, massive irregularities and anomalies in the implementation of centrally sponsored schemes and projects, lack of irrigation, total mess in rural electrification programme, unabated erosion wiping out village after village, PDS logjam and above all for its failure to bring about any appreciable change in the health sector despite allocation of huge funds.
Congress brought in Digvijay Singh, AICC General Secretary and observer of Assam, Bhubaneswar Kalita, APCC President and Tarun Gogoi to counter the opposition and sound the election bugle for the electoral encounter. BJP in particular was targeted by Digvijay Singh for playing second fiddle to ‘saffron terrorism’ and named Swami Asimananda, Colonel Purohit and Pragya Bharati for their involvement. His drive to outshine Rahul Gandhi at an all minority public meeting near the border town of Karimganj calling Bengali refugees ‘infiltrators’ evoked widespread condemnation. It was clear that he was playing the ‘Muslim card’ which backfired as Congress leaders were shaken by his ‘irresponsible statement’ which was made without his home work being done.
Bhubaneswar Kalita also repeated the ‘refugee refrain’ only to be rebutted by Tarun Gogoi who tried to give a human touch to the issue. This came in handy to BJP which used this as its poll plank and exposed the communal politics of Congress. AUDF found the issue appropriate and used it to hit back at Congress leaders. Ataur Rahman Majharbhuiya thrashed out at Digvijay Singh, calling Congress more communal and dangerous than BJP for discrimination against Muslims in employment in the Central and State Government establishments.
Majharbhuiya unfolding the planning of his party said, “Our thrust will be on door to door campaign and not on big rallies by big leaders. “The party has shrugged off its minority tag by fielding a good number of Hindu candidates. AGP Supremo Badaruddin Ajmal, in his campaign trail addressed a series of public meetings across rural valley to send the message that it was high time to oust Congress for its misrule and misgovernance.
In the final analysis, more star campaigners will address meetings and rallies to woo voters. The reality remains that the opposition has to go for post poll alliance in order to oust Congress. Bihar is a clear example of the fact that only a coalition can undo a coalition.
Looking at the trends and moods, AUDF is all set to play spoilsport for Congress and BJP and up its tally of 3. The poll outcome of this valley will have its bearing on Dispur politics where the possibility of a non Congress government might be explored, even by making unexpected and surprise moves. Art Mehra did give an indication of this when he said BJP “Is ready to join hands with AUDF also” to unseat Tarun Gogoi. Nothing indeed is impossible in politics.

Jyoti Lal Chowdhury