Letter from the Editor-in-chief

Eections in India have never been as exciting as the ongoing 2014 general elections. Initially two names were the focus of all conversation namely Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi. However, the results in the elections at Delhi have paved the way for Arvind Kejriwal to be the messiah of the Aam Admi. Media coverage of Arvind Kejriwal was unprecedented as he became a household name throughout India and thereby, a third name has been added to the mix.

Indian politics is based on democracy. In democracy, it is the elected Members of Parliament who determine who the Prime Minister of the country will be. However, in a change of strategy the BJP has declared Narendra Modi the present Chief Minister of Gujarat as their Prime Ministerial candidate after a long – drawn out spat with LK Advani. It has worked. He is pulling in big crowds to rallies where he constantly talks about developmental issues. He is talking about linking of rivers, he is talking about connecting the north to the east and the south to the west by way of bullet trains. He is talking about the development of a hundred new cities and he is talking about good governance and simplification of the Indian taxation system.

The Indian taxation system, as we all know is one of the most complicated taxation systems in the world. All these promises are quite impressive and do create a good impact in the minds of the people who understand development and people who think above caste lines. If the crowd that Mr. Modi is pulling to these rallies can be converted into votes, then there is no doubt that our next Government will be a BJP Government (Read Modi’s Government). But it is yet to be seen how deep the BJP workers have penetrated into the strata of the poorest of the poor and convince them to vote for the BJP.

After all that has been said, Modi’s good governance and developmental model is at times very confusing. Let us interpret data between Gujarat and Assam on the basis of some key factors. For instance, as per the claims of the Chief Minister of Assam Tarun Gogoi in a recent press conference, the GSDP growth rate in 2011-2012 was 8.42% in Assam as against 8.20% in Gujarat. GSDP for the country was 6.48%. If we take the case of the health index improvement, Assam was 3rd and Gujarat was placed in 13th position in the country. Similarly in the education improvement index, Assam was placed at the 13th position as against Gujarat which was given the 20th rank. Farmers’ debt in Assam was only 18.1% as against Gujarat’s 51.9%. 

All these rankings are based on rate of percentage of growth from 1999-2000 to 2007-2008. Let us take a look at more details. The number of girls going to school per 1000 boys (class 1 to 8) is 100 in Assam as against 85 in Gujarat. Similarly Assam is better in providing jobs to women in the organized sector as women employment is 33.1% in Assam as against 14.7% in Gujarat. In spite of all this, Modi’s model of development is much talked about by all including the media. However, it must be pointed here that Assam is nowhere discussed or referred to. I call this a disadvantage of location, I call it alienation from the mainland and I also call it bad luck. But we must also remember that part of the blame is with us. As you all know, good work is always diluted when there is a negative event. Unfortunately our region sees bandhs, agitation and interruption by civil societies for one reason or the other on a regular basis. Once a Government is elected by the people it is the responsibility of the people to allow the Government to function smoothly.

The Congress which is well versed in contesting and winning elections seems to be totally demoralized. The present scenario, if not changed drastically in the next few days, will ensure that the Congress party will have its lowest number of MPs in the new parliament ever since the independence of the country. We are not denying the fact that the Congress party has, during the last 10 years, done a wonderful job by way of the Right to Information (RTI), Food Security, Right to Education, National Rural Health Mission (NRHM), Sarvo Siksha Abhiyan, Direct Cash Subsidy to the poor and the likes. Unfortunately the problem with the Congress is the delivery system. To what extent have these benefits reached the people who were initially targeted is the real issue. If it has reached to the target group, i.e. the poorest of the poor, this will add to the vote bank of the Congress. Unfortunately corruption is so ingrained in our blood that it ensures the failure of all models of social upliftment. It can however be said here that subsidy is no answer to development.

The emergence of the Aam Aadmi Party under Arvind Kejriwal and the historical win in the Delhi State Assembly was a pleasant surprise to every one of us but it is not going to win many States in the coming elections because it has lost its vision and became over ambitious. Their role now is relegated to a vote – splitter and it is to be seen who this split of votes affects more. 

It will spell disaster for the country if either Congress or BJP fails to come to power after these elections. If it is so, it is the third front with over 30 parties that will form the Government without a pan - India acceptance. Past experience shows that all of the Governments run by minority parties have struggled for their very survival be it the Government of Mr. V. P. Singh or Mr. Chandrashekhar.

This issue of Eastern Panorama is a special issue on the 2014 Lok Sabha Elections and we appeal every reader to vote as per their conscience. 

This issue is also our 22nd Anniversary issue and we thank everyone for their help in making this happen and their support through the years.

Dr. K. K. Jhunjhunwala